Non-OPEC liquids production is set to expand by about 0.6 million barrels a day in both 2026 and 2027, adding to global oil supply as output outside the OPEC-led Declaration of Cooperation continues to rise, according to OPEC.
The increase will take non-DoC liquids production to an average 54.8 million barrels a day in 2026, up from 2025, before rising further to 55.5 million barrels a day in 2027. OPEC left both forecasts unchanged from its previous monthly assessment.
Brazil, the US, Canada and Argentina are expected to lead production growth this year, while Qatar, Canada, Brazil and Argentina are projected to be the main drivers in 2027.
The continued expansion outside the DoC comes as OPEC forecasts global oil demand growth of 0.4 million barrels a day in 2026 and a stronger 2.4 million barrels a day increase in 2027.
Americas Lead 2026 Growth
The Americas account for most of the expected non-DoC production increase in 2026. Liquids output in the region is forecast to average 28.85 million barrels a day, up 0.56 million barrels a day from 2025.
US liquids production is expected to rise by 0.45 million barrels a day to 22.67 million barrels a day, while Latin America is projected to increase by 0.75 million barrels a day to 8.30 million barrels a day.
Brazil is among the principal sources of the increase, with OPEC pointing to continued production growth from offshore projects. The report forecasts Brazil’s liquids supply, including biofuels, to rise by about 110,000 barrels a day in 2027 to average 5.0 million barrels a day. Canada and Argentina are also expected to contribute to the expansion.
Qatar Takes Lead in 2027
The composition of growth shifts in 2027, with Qatar emerging as the largest contributor among the countries identified by OPEC.
Non-DoC liquids production is projected to increase by 0.6 million barrels a day to 55.5 million barrels a day, with Qatar, Canada, Brazil and Argentina leading the gains.
The report’s country-level projections show non-DoC production growth of about 620,000 barrels a day in 2027, led by Qatar with about 200,000 barrels a day, followed by Canada at 130,000 barrels a day, Brazil at 110,000 barrels a day and Argentina at 90,000 barrels a day.
The US is expected to see only limited growth in 2027, with liquids production forecast at 22.70 million barrels a day, up about 30,000 barrels a day from 2026.
Supply Growth Meets Rising Demand
The continued expansion of non-DoC production comes against OPEC’s expectation of stronger global oil demand in 2027.
World oil demand is projected to increase by about 2.4 million barrels a day next year, compared with growth of 0.4 million barrels a day in 2026. Non-OECD countries are expected to account for most of the 2027 increase, with demand growth of about 1.9 million barrels a day.
OPEC also forecasts production of natural gas liquids and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries to increase by about 100,000 barrels a day in both 2026 and 2027, reaching averages of 8.7 million and 8.9 million barrels a day, respectively.
The supply outlook leaves non-DoC producers positioned for another year of production growth, even as global demand accelerates in 2027.
