Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived in China on Sunday with his country reeling from newly imposed US tariffs, raising hopes for a reset in Sino-Indian ties. Since last week, tariffs on Indian exports to the United States ranging from diamonds to prawns have surged to 50%, with President Donald Trump framing them as punishment for Delhi’s continued imports of Russian oil. Analysts warn the levies could deliver lasting blows to India’s export ambitions and growth trajectory.
China faces a parallel challenge: its economy is slowing, and US tariffs are straining Beijing’s plans. Against this backdrop, Modi’s visit to meet President Xi Jinping, leaders of the world’s two most populous nations comes at a critical moment. “Put simply, what happens in this relationship matters to the rest of the world,” analysts Chietigj Bajpaee and Yu Jie of Chatham House noted, describing the trip as a potential turning point.
India and China rank among the world’s top five economies, with India on track to become the third largest by 2028. Their combined strengths China’s manufacturing base and India’s services sector, create opportunities for collaboration. “While the world has traditionally focused on US-China ties, it’s time we also examine how the second and would-be third largest economies can work together,” said Qian Liu, founder of Beijing-based Wusawa Advisory.
Still, the relationship is fraught. The unresolved Himalayan border dispute remains a flashpoint, with 2020’s deadly Galwan Valley clash leaving scars. India responded with sweeping bans on Chinese apps and tighter controls on investment, while cooperation on flights and infrastructure stalled. Other fault lines, from Tibet and water disputes to Pakistan relations, complicate trust. Yet practical gains are expected. Resuming direct flights, easing visas, and incremental trade deals are likely “soft wins,” according to Priyanka Kishore of Asia Decoded.
For Delhi, closer engagement with Beijing underscores frustration with Washington. Once seen as a counterweight to China, India is recalibrating after Trump’s tariff escalation. Modi’s participation in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), alongside China, Russia, and Pakistan, reflects India’s growing embrace of multipolar frameworks. China, for its part, values the optics of Global South solidarity while under US tariff siege. “The India-China-Russia dynamic could reshape global trade flows by combining manufacturing, services, and resources to reduce dependence on the US,” Bajpaee and Yu observed.
Economically, India remains reliant on Chinese inputs and may push for lower import duties. Experts see space for cooperation in electronics manufacturing, while Beijing eyes India’s 1.45 billion consumers. Faster visa approvals and market access are “easy wins” that could follow. Though deep mistrust lingers, Modi’s visit is unlikely to resolve decades-old tensions. Still, it may signal a pragmatic reset and a warning to Washington that India has other options.
