A quiet storm is gathering in the Middle East, and its ripples are already reaching Ghanaian shores. As fears of an expanded conflict between Israel and Iran intensify, global oil markets are reacting with volatility not seen in months. For a country like Ghana, heavily reliant on fuel imports, these tremors are more than just international headlines, they’re potential triggers for another painful cycle of price hikes.
Energy analyst Kobina Abaka-Kwansa warns that the situation could adversely affect Ghana. “What has happened now is going to have an adverse effect on Ghana,” he said, pointing to the global attention on high-profile geopolitical tensions. He explained noting that disruptions in the supply chain and trading routes could spark price movements Ghana is not insulated from.
In recent weeks, Brent crude oil has climbed steeply, reaching $75.50 per barrel as of June 13, 2025. According to Trading Economics, that marks a 14.2 percent increase in a single month. On June 11 alone, Brent surged by over 4 percent, its largest one-day jump since last October, fueled by escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, the maritime artery through which nearly a fifth of the world’s oil supply flows. The Financial Times warns that with each flare-up in the region, markets are bracing for a worst-case scenario.
Abaka-Kwansa adds that “on average, we are looking at about 7–10%” potential increases in fuel prices if tensions persist. However, he also cautions that the situation remains dynamic and dependent on how the geopolitical landscape unfolds.
A Hard-Earned Break for Consumers
For Ghana, this looming disruption could not come at a more fragile moment.
After years of fuel price instability, the country had finally begun to see some relief at the pumps. A combination of modest government interventions and favourable global trends had allowed retail prices to drop meaningfully across the board. Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs), operating under Ghana’s deregulated pricing regime, were able to offer petrol and diesel at rates well below the National Petroleum Authority’s (NPA) price floors.
In February 2025, while the NPA’s official floor for petrol stood at GH¢12.56 per litre, brands like So Energy were offering it for as low as GH¢11.39. Diesel saw similar trends, with some stations selling at GH¢12.45 compared to a regulatory minimum of GH¢13.45.
These price drops were not just statistical wins. They were felt across daily life. Public transport operators shelved fare increases. Logistics companies recalibrated costs. Delivery firms and market vendors began to operate with slightly more breathing room. For many Ghanaians, it offered a rare moment of financial ease amid broader economic challenges.
The Fragile Structure Behind the Gains
Yet, the very structure that allowed those gains, the country’s reliance on imported refined petroleum, also makes them vulnerable. Ghana may extract crude oil, but it lacks large-scale refining capacity, meaning final pump prices are shaped by global market conditions, not local production.
And with Brent crude threatening to breach the $80–$90 per barrel threshold, import costs could rise by more than 20 percent in the weeks ahead. The country’s current pricing stability was built on an assumption that global markets would remain relatively calm. That assumption no longer holds.
Abaka-Kwansa notes that importers are likely to be hit mid-next week, saying, “Certainly, those who are importing are likely to get stuck somewhere in the middle of next week,” hinting at potential challenges in procuring or pricing fuel deliveries if market volatility continues.
The Domestic Fallout if Prices Surge
If international prices continue their upward trend, the effects could be swift and widespread. The most immediate consequence would likely be a return to higher fuel prices, as importers pass on rising costs to consumers. That, in turn, could reignite fare hikes by transport unions, compress margins for delivery and logistics firms, and fuel another round of inflation, one that Ghana has worked hard to contain.
The implications go beyond fuel. As energy costs ripple through supply chains, prices of essential goods could begin to climb once again. Small and medium enterprises, particularly in agribusiness and manufacturing, may face difficult decisions on operations and pricing.
Building Buffers in a Stormy World
So what can be done in the face of such external shocks?
While Ghana cannot control geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East, it can begin to strengthen its domestic buffers. Fuel hedging strategies, which have previously shielded the economy from sharp price swings, may need to be revived. There is also room to invest more aggressively in alternative energy sources, solar, biogas, and electric mobility, that reduce reliance on imported petroleum over the long term.
In the near term, government agencies like the NPA must maintain transparency in fuel pricing mechanisms and communicate clearly with both the market and the public. This will be critical in managing expectations and avoiding panic buying or price speculation.
In the view of Abaka-Kwansa, “What drivers can do is to possibly fill their tanks between now and the 16th,” he suggests. But he also acknowledges the limitations: “even if you do long-term, you run out of gold,” he said, adding that people should simply “prepare to pay more.”
Riding the Global Waves
The recent stretch of low prices was proof that, under the right conditions, Ghana’s deregulated fuel market can work in favour of consumers. But the system is only as resilient as the global conditions allow. As tensions rise in the Middle East, the risk is that this brief period of relief will give way to another cycle of price pressure.
Abaka-Kwansa puts it that, “We are trying to raise money to pay our energy bills,” and with external shocks looming, “once it becomes real, that will be difficult to make it happen.”
