As Ghana enters the Christmas season, market activity is being shaped by a rare economic twist: rapidly falling inflation and a strengthening cedi. While these shifts are broadly positive for the economy, they are creating complex pricing dilemmas for market women who form the backbone of Ghana’s informal retail sector.
The result is highly uneven pricing across markets, with some traders adjusting to the new reality and others holding onto older, higher prices to offset past losses.
According to the Bank of Ghana’s Summary of Economic and Financial Data released on 25 November 2025, headline consumer prices stood at 257.0 in October. Complementing this, fresh data from the Ghana Statistical Service shows year-on-year inflation slowing to 8.0% in October 2025, the lowest rate recorded in more than four years, and the 10th monthly decline.
The sharp deceleration in inflation is occurring alongside a significant improvement in foreign exchange stability. The Bank of Ghana’s November 2025 charts place the USD/GHS exchange rate at GH₵ 11.12, reflecting a stronger cedi compared to the highs seen during the inflationary surge of previous years. These combined macroeconomic gains, lower inflation, lower producer and consumer prices, and a more stable exchange rate, theoretically, should bring relief to households and businesses as year-end demand surges.
But for many market women, the picture is far more complicated. Across markets in Accra, Christmas pricing has become a patchwork of differing strategies shaped by the lingering impact of past economic pressures. Some traders are already reducing prices, taking advantage of lower input costs and improved exchange rate conditions to attract customers ahead of the festive rush. These vendors see the current environment as an opportunity to rebuild consumer confidence after years of high and unpredictable inflation.
Others, however, find themselves unable or unwilling to lower prices. Many traders still hold stock purchased months ago, at a time when the cedi was weaker and wholesale prices were significantly higher. For these market women, selling at reduced prices would mean incurring losses on inventory bought under harsher economic conditions.
Their prices, therefore, continue to reflect the legacy cost of inflation, even as national indicators show improvement. This divergence explains why consumers walking through major markets encounter wide differences in the pricing of rice, oil, tomatoes, frozen goods, and other staples.
The split is equally evident along the supply chain. For producers and suppliers, declining inflation and a stronger exchange rate reduce the cost of imported materials such as packaging, preservatives, and plastics, making restocking cheaper. But the benefits are only fully felt by traders purchasing new inventory; those holding older stock must absorb the losses before passing on savings to consumers.
This mismatch creates both opportunity and strain, depending on the timing of purchases, and it highlights the structural vulnerabilities faced by small traders who operate with thin margins and little financial cushioning.
Consumers, meanwhile, are experiencing mixed conditions. Shoppers may find relief at stalls that have adjusted prices downward, but they still face elevated prices in areas where traders are offloading old, high-cost stock. This inconsistent pricing landscape may shape buying behaviour throughout December, pushing consumers to compare multiple stalls or markets before purchasing Christmas goods.
The broader economic context reflects a country in transition. Inflation has slowed for ten straight months, food prices, traditionally the largest contributor to price pressure, have eased according to the Bank of Ghana’s latest datasets, and the exchange rate continues to stabilise after years of volatility. These indicators collectively signal a macroeconomic environment that favours lower prices, improved purchasing power, and more predictable business planning.
