African countries should stop exporting raw critical minerals without securing commitments for local value addition, as the global transition to low-carbon technologies accelerates demand for the continent’s resources, according to Dr. Rob Davies, South Africa’s former minister of trade and industry.
Dr. Davies on the AfCFTA Podcast said Africa risks remaining stuck at the bottom of global value chains if it continues to supply minerals such as cobalt, copper and other inputs for clean energy technologies without building industrial capacity on the continent.
“If we are just going to be supplying raw materials into other countries’ manufacturing processes, we’re going to be located at the bottom of value chains,” he said. “The developmental imperatives will not be realised.”
Dr. Davies, who now sits on the advisory council of the African Continental Free Trade Area Secretariat, said the AfCFTA should be used to support a coordinated approach to industrialisation linked to the climate transition, including building regional value chains around minerals processing and green manufacturing.
He warned that the climate transition could be economically and socially damaging for Africa if it does not emerge with stronger industrial capacity.
“If we don’t move decisively… into value-added production as we move into this low-carbon economy, this transition is going to be highly unjust to the people of Africa,” he said.
According to him, African countries should negotiate harder with global partners seeking access to the continent’s mineral wealth.
“We’re no longer going to just offer you dirt out of the ground,” he said. “We’re going to expect there to be a level of value addition and corresponding investments if you want access to our minerals.”
The advisory council member urged that Africa must aim to develop regional value chains, where different stages of production are distributed across multiple countries to ensure broader participation.
The continent’s ability to coordinate will be central, Dr. Davies said, because few countries can build entire industrial chains on their own. Cooperation would also reduce the risk of countries undercutting each other in negotiations with global buyers and manufacturers.
He further noted that the AfCFTA’s investment protocol provides a framework better suited to today’s environment than older investment protection models, because it recognises governments’ right to regulate and includes obligations tied to sustainability and development.
He argued that such frameworks will become increasingly important as global trade rules shift and developed economies abandon the multilateral standards they once championed.
Dr. Davies also cautioned that Africa’s young population, often seen as a long-term advantage, could face job losses if the continent fails to play an active role in the development and deployment of artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies.
“If we let it passively pass us by, it’s probably going to be a net negative to us,” he said.
