The game of soccer or football is probably the most popular sport in the world. It has a huge following, and businesses have sprung up around it. Some of these are betting and the sale of souvenirs. Others have to do with food and drink sales, all being part of the leisure industry. Since the invention of the game, it has gone through several metamorphosis especially relating to its governing rules, with coaching and managerial teams introducing several strategies and “formations” to counter or pose a formidable challenge to opponents.
Over the years, it has also been largely acknowledged that in every conventional soccer match, the first half is arguably a match between the respective team players, while the second half is a match between the two coaches. The teams play from a clean sheet in the first half, while in the second half, they play with the benefit of their respective coach, who would have schooled them based on their observations and analyses made from the first half. Hence, the view that the test of significance then rests on the coaches in the second half.
As a child, I played some soccer. I started with playing the number 4 position (right central defense) and later retired to the goal post when I suffered a knee injury. Now I am an ardent soccer enthusiast and do not just watch but take notes, at least serious mental notes, whenever I watch.
As a super fan, I have seen a lot of games at all levels, starting with my visits to the Kumasi Stadium to watch my favourite team, Asante Kotoko Football Club, perform wonders in the Ghana Premier League, to watching Ghana compete at the AFCON and World Cup games.
I have also seen a myriad of games in the English Premier League (EPL), League 1 of France, Bundesliga of Germany, and La Liga of Spain. These games have provided me with a strong sample base to predict certain outcomes and trends in soccer matches. The strong mental notes taken while viewing these games have made me able to assess the scoring patterns and their timing with a very high probability of accuracy.
The Take-off and Landing (TOAL) Theory
My flagship mental note is what has led me to propound a theory that I call “Take-off and Landing”Theory or TOAL Theory. The title of the theory was derived from a feature in the aircraft business.
It is true that most aircraft accidents occur during takeoff and landing. I sourced from the internet that Studies and data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) show that these features “…account for a significant percentage of aviation accidents. Specifically, landing is the most common flight phase for aviation incidents, with some 53% of all accidents between 2005 and 2023 occurring during the landing phase. Take-off is the second-most common phase for accidents, usually caused by engine blowouts, fires, runway debris, or bird strikes. Other phases like approach, initial climb, and cruise are safer due to higher altitude and fewer varying parameters.”
The TOAL theory is by no means scientific. It is more of an empirical theory, but so far it has worked. To start with, I chose a motley of soccer teams and studied the trend of scores throughout the World Cup 2022 in Qatar. The timing of goals proved seminal. So, I decided to take a closer look. I tested it with friends on my Whatsapp platforms. Sadly, even though there was concession that my observation was well-grounded, I didn’t get the groundswell of support that I expected.
That confirmed that indeed “a prophet is not acceptable in his own neighborhood.” My quest to share my findings became irresistible with the upcoming World Cup 2026. In order to make life easy to the reader (and not to complicate my life at this stage), I decided to randomly choose the EPL scores for one week – Week 15. I was shocked at the result, as shown below.
While writing this theory, I kept checking scores as the matches unfolded through the weeks, and with the AFCON 2024/25, the outcomes have been consistent. Indeed, I now have all the results of the 2022 World Cup played in Qatar, and it is refreshing to note that the score from the TOAL analysis is even higher than what the EPL data has given.
I have left the scientific analyses (including the probabilistic modelling) to luminaries who have worked scientifically in this space, some of whom I have referenced in my Bibliographies. But just by observation, I saw a strong predictive value in my analyses. The World Cup data that gave approximately 66% accuracy is available on request. Although a full analysis of the World Cup 2022 results is outside the scope of this study, I dare mention it here to assuage minds that may be tempted to assert that the sample used in my analysis is too small.
Using the data under review, I discovered that the majority (i.e. 63%) of the goals were concentrated within the first twelve minutes of each half of the beautiful game, and the last twelve minutes of each half. So, taking a cue from the phenomenon in the aircraft business, I named for each half the first twelve minutes “Take-Off” and the last twelve minutes “Landing” to mimic the occurrence of disaster for the losing teams.
Then I was challenged to make further observations regarding goals scored outside of Take-Off and Landing periods or zones, and what I discovered was mind-blowing. Score a goal outside TOAL, and most of the time that team emerges the winner. At worst they never go down as losers. Thus, their worst result is a draw as long as they scored outside the TOAL zone.
These observations are exemplified below using the results of Week 15 of the EPL games. The more games I observe, it provides me with additional data sets to further strengthen my assertion, and I look forward to engaging league management teams, coaches, trainers, team psychologists, and even FIFA for collaboration in developing, adapting, and publishing the results.
Results of EPL Week 15 matches that were the latest available at the time of finalising this Theory are set out below.
Full Statistics of Scores in Week 15 Matches
| Match Day 15 (Dec. 7, 7 and 8 2025) | ||||||
| Match Played | Goals | Remarks | Rating | |||
| Within TOAL | Outside TOAL | |||||
| Saturday 6 of December Week 15 | ||||||
| 1. | Aston Villa – 2 Emillano Buendia 90’ Matty Cash 35’ | Arsenal – 1 Leandro Trossard 51’ | 3 | – | All goals in TOAL Zones | 100% |
| 2. | Newcastle – 2 B. Guimaraes 31 A. Gordon 45+8’ (P) | Burnley – 1 Flemming 90+4’ | 2 | 1 | Newcastle Scores outside TOAL and Won Two Goals scored in TOAL Zones | 100% |
| 3. | Everton – 3 N. Milenkovic 2’ T. Barry 45+3’ K Dewsbury-Hall 80’ | Nottingham Forest – 0 | 3 | – | All goals in TOAL Zones | 100% |
| 4. | Tottenham – 2 Richarlison 25’ X. Simins 43’ | Brentford – 0 | 1 | 1 | One goal outside TOAL Zone and Scorer won One goal in TOAL Zone | 100% |
| 5. | M. City – 3 R. Dias 31’ J. Givardiol 35’ P. Foden 65 | Sunderland – 0 | 1 | 2 | Two Goals outside TOAL Zone and Scorer Won | 100% |
| 6. | Bournemouth– 0 | Chelsea – 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 7. | Leeds – 3 D. Calvert-Lewen 73’(P) A Stach 75’ A Tanaka 90+6 | Liverpool – 3 H. Ekitike 48’; 50’ D. Szoboszlai 80’ | 4 | 2 | Leeds scores at least one goal outside TOAL Zone and wasn’t to lose. Scores two goals in TOAL; Liverpool scores all three goals in TOAL Zone. | 100% |
| B. | Sunday 7 of December Week 15 | |||||
| 8. | Brighton 1 – 1 Rutter 90’ +1 | West Ham Bowen 73’ | 1 | 1 | Brighton scores in TOAL Zone; West Ham scores outside TOAL and was not to lose. | 100% |
| 9. | Fulham – 1 H. Wilson 38’ | Crystal Palace – 2 E. Nketiah 20’ M. Guehi 87’ | 2 | 1 | Fulham scores in TOAL Zone C. Palace scores a goal in TOAL and a goal outside TOAL and won. | 100% |
| C. | Monday 8 of December Week 15 | |||||
| 10. | Wolves – 1 Bellegarde 45’+2’ | M. United – 4 B Fernandes 25’;(82’ P) B.Mbeumo 51’ M. Mount 62’ | 2 | 3 | Wolves scores in TOAL Zone; Man U scores two goals outside TOAL and won. Scores two in TOAL Zone. | 100% |
Updated at 13:28 ET – Sunday, 14/12/2025
Apart from the Bournemouth/Chelsea match that ended goalless, all other matches affirmed the accuracy of the hypothesis that once a team scores a goal outside TOAL, that team is unlikely to lose and may win. It is also proven that a chunk of the goals (19 out of 30, being 63%) were scored within the TOAL Zone. As an aside, as a Ghanaian, suffice it to observe that the Ghana Black Stars have recently suffered defeats, all happening in the “Landing” Zone.
The Lessons
- To the teams, the advice is:
- Do not lose concentration during the Take-Off and Landing periods. Focus, Focus, Focus.
- Teams require stamina to go through the entire period and to achieve this, teams must train, targeting 130 minutes of intensive play, as their standard.
- As the game comes to a close, do not allow the ball to hand close to your goal area. It is true that the best defence is to attack. So, aim at hearing the last whistle while in possession of the ball. That means the opponents had no chance of making a possible comeback.
- To the Managers/Coaches:
Know that even though you take overall responsibility, the biggest assessment is on you, particularly in the second half, since you are easily exposed if your team concedes a goal or goals during the second half.
- To Those Into Betting
The analysis shows that TOAL Theory has a strong predictive value.
Conclusion
It is worth noting that if teams, especially those headed for the upcoming World Cup, are to take a cue from the TOAL theory, they will most likely do very well. The statistics and analysis of the World Cup 2022 are also available on request. However, for the scope of this paper, the author took a view that a random selection from a standard league in the stature of the EPL, which is world-class, should suffice.
A keyword of note is that this theory is only for academic purposes and to demonstrate how one can derive a pattern from random numbers, even when not being too scientific. I am happy to work with interested persons who wish to dive deeper into this matter.
Ernest Kofi Abankroh is Former Country Manager of Anglogold Ashanti
Former Ghana National Tennis Star
Soccer Enthusiast
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