Investors with exposure to the world’s top cocoa producer are watching Ivory Coast’s election for signals on policy continuity and security after President Alassane Ouattara’s bid for a fourth term proceeded without his main rivals on the ballot.
Voting began at 8 a.m. in Abidjan and other cities, with 8.7 million registered. Two hours after polls opened in central Abidjan, turnout appeared light in what remained a calm environment.
Ouattara, 83, has led the economy since 2011 and frames his case for continuity around a development agenda aimed at turning the country into an upper middle-income economy by 2030 by expanding manufacturing, mining output and energy production. His infrastructure and oil-industry programmes have supported one of the world’s highest growth rates over the past decade.
The court validated his eligibility on grounds that a 2016 constitutional change reset term limits. It disqualified several candidates, including former Credit Suisse CEO Tidjane Thiam and former President Laurent Gbagbo. None of the remaining four challengers are seen as capable of unseating the incumbent.
The exclusions triggered a campaign of protest and a boycott call from Gbagbo, who described the election as a “civilian coup d’état.” Authorities banned marches and made hundreds of arrests. Ouattara has denied manipulating the process.
“President Ouattara has positioned his market-friendly, Western-aligned government as an advocate of democratic governance,” said Mucahid Durmaz, senior Africa analyst at Verisk Maplecroft. “Yet his bid for a fourth term contradicts this stance, normalizing the use of lawfare to prolong tenure, and reducing elections to a rubber-stamp approval.”
Isolated violence has been recorded. A junior gendarmerie officer was shot dead on patrol in an opposition area and state transport vehicles have been attacked.
“I voted so that peace and security will prevail,” said Keita Alexi, a 43-year-old driving school conductor.
For markets, the issue is whether post-election calm holds and whether policy continuity is consolidated without a legitimacy shock that might widen the country-risk premium. “It’s hard to understand if Ouattara is genuinely popular amongst Ivorians,” said Leo Morawiecki, an emerging markets analyst at Abrdn Investments Ltd. He noted clear infrastructure progress but said “youth unemployment remains high and this is not a cheap country to live in.”
A disputed result or extended unrest could disrupt cocoa logistics and dent investor sentiment, while a contained outcome would preserve visibility on the current fiscal and investment path. The next signal will be turnout, acceptance of results by rivals, and the response window after the electoral commission declares a winner.
