Just as inflationary winds appear to be easing across Ghana and Nigeria, Deloitte West Africa has sounded the alarm: the calm may be short-lived. In a recent economic outlook, Deloitte highlights emerging upside risks to inflation in both countries, pointing to the ripple effects of a renewed global trade war.
With new U.S. tariffs set to disrupt global supply chains and elevate international prices, both nations could find themselves back in inflation’s tight grip despite recent signs of cooling.
In Ghana, inflation slowed for the third consecutive month, easing to 22.40% in March 2025, down from 23.10% in February. Monthly inflation also dipped significantly from 1.30% to 0.2%, with the stable cedi playing a pivotal role. However, the relief hasn’t yet filtered into market prices, leaving consumers feeling the pinch despite the statistics.
“New U.S. tariffs will spur imported inflation and increase local consumer prices, reigniting inflationary pressure,” Deloitte warns, suggesting Ghana’s modest disinflation could be undermined by external shocks.
Meanwhile, Nigeria faces its own economic balancing act. While falling global crude prices may lower domestic fuel costs, Deloitte cautions that rising inflation could intensify pressure on the naira, driven by forex demand and looming capital flight risks.
In both countries, the specter of imported inflation threatens to worsen cost-of-living crises, as the intricate web of global trade and commodity prices continues to pull on the strings of local economies.
Policymakers may need more than monetary tools and proactive strategies to shield vulnerable households and businesses from another inflationary storm.
