Ghana is on track to record single-digit inflation for the first time in almost four years, with headline inflation expected to fall to 9.6% in September 2025, according to IC Research. The projection comes after inflation slowed to 11.5% in August, its lowest level since October 2021.
Analysts at IC Research say the slowdown will be driven mainly by a favourable base effect compared to last year, when inflation surged sharply in September 2024.
They also point to the lingering impact of the 15% cut in transport fares introduced in May 2025, which is keeping transport prices in deflation on an annual basis.
Food prices are another big factor. The ongoing main crop harvest season has boosted the supply of vegetables and cereals, helping to ease food inflation.
The reopening of the fishing season in September, after the July–August closed period for industrial trawlers, is also expected to bring down seafood prices, further supporting disinflation.
On the non-food side, fuel prices have inched up in recent weeks, but petrol and diesel are still cheaper than they were a year ago. This has helped to contain price pressures, though IC Research warns that possible increases in utility tariffs remain a key risk going forward.
With inflation easing faster than anticipated, attention now shifts to the Bank of Ghana. At the current policy rate of 25%, real interest rates are unusually high, giving the Monetary Policy Committee room to loosen policy.
IC Research expects the central bank to deliver another rate cut at its September meeting, possibly trimming the benchmark rate by 300 basis points to 22%.
If this forecast holds, Ghana will not only meet the government’s end-2025 inflation target of 11.9%, but could also close the year firmly in single-digit territory, something the country has not achieved since 2021.
