Ghana’s fiscal deficit is now projected to hit 3.9% of GDP in 2025, slightly higher than the government’s revised target of 3.8%, according to a new forecast by IC Research.
The economic research firm’s outlook follows an assessment of the 2025 Mid-Year Review Budget, noting that while the government plans to maintain spending discipline in the latter half of the year, persistent payroll and energy sector costs pose risks to fiscal performance.
IC Research acknowledged that strong expenditure restraint in early 2025 eased some concerns about the fiscal outlook.
However, the decision to maintain the primary surplus target at 1.5% of GDP, despite reducing the overall deficit goal, reflects unanticipated energy sector obligations.
These obligations rose by GH¢2.9 billion to GH¢30 billion for the year, with 94.1% of the increase already settled in the first half of 2025.
The report highlighted that the Electricity Company of Ghana largely adhered to payment arrangements in early 2025, but a January shortfall of GH¢103.4 million could impact future settlements.
This uncertainty over energy payments, IC Research cautioned, adds a layer of fiscal risk in the short term.
During the Mid-Year Review, the government revised its deficit target downward from 4.1% to 3.8% of GDP, citing stronger-than-expected first-half performance. Finance Minister Casiel Ato Forson reaffirmed his administration’s commitment to restoring public finances and sustaining fiscal stability.
