Gold is glistening again, and this time with the confidence of a market that thinks a US rate cut is no longer a distant hope but an almost certain December reality.
By Friday, November 28, gold ticked up to $4,174 per ounce, marking a 0.34% daily rise, a 6.18% gain in a month, and a staggering 57% surge year-on-year. The metal remains within reach of its all-time high of $4,381.58 set in October.
What’s powering gold’s shine is a decisive turn in market sentiment. Remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, all signalling support for further monetary easing, combined with delayed economic data revealing underlying weakness, have strengthened bets that the Fed will cut rates at its December meeting.
The political winds are blowing in the same direction. Kevin Hassett, widely seen as a frontrunner to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, has publicly echoed President Trump’s push for a rate reduction. Traders have taken note.
Markets now price in over an 80% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in December, a dramatic leap from just 30% a week earlier. Three more rate cuts are being priced in before the end of 2026.
Meanwhile, central banks, especially in emerging markets, continue to stockpile gold at historic levels. Non-sovereign investors have joined the rush, with ETF inflows rising sharply as global uncertainty keeps risk appetites in check.
