Same Country. Same Government. Two Commodities. Two Very Different Experiences.
The Big Picture
Cocoa is showing Ghana the future if complacency wins, while gold is offering Ghana the chance to choose a better future. The difference between those two paths is not luck or destiny. It is policy, discipline, and foresight. If policymakers are wise, they will treat today’s gold boom not as a victory lap, but as a classroom. A moment to study, reflect, and redesign systems before stress arrives. Because the lesson is simple: commodity wealth does not fail because resources disappear; it fails because systems rot quietly. Cocoa’s rot is now visible in unpaid bills and exhausted farmers. Gold’s system must be kept healthy while it still looks strong. That, ultimately, is the real test of economic leadership.
Cocoa’s Reality Today
Recent developments in the cocoa sector show just how fragile Ghana’s commodity systems can become when pricing and financing drift away from reality. Thousands of cocoa farmers, many reporting delays of over 90 days, are still waiting to be paid for beans delivered months ago, forcing some households to cut meals to manage daily expenses. These delays reflect deeper strain: an estimated hundreds of thousands of tonnes of cocoa remain unsold because buyers have been unwilling to pay a price above global market levels. In an effort to restore competitiveness, the government reduced the cocoa farmgate price by about 28 percent for the 2025/26 season. Still, that adjustment has sparked intense debate about its implications for farmers’ livelihoods. Authorities have also introduced new financing arrangements and directed that unpaid farmers be settled, but the damage to confidence among farmers and buyers is already significant.
Two Voices in the Economy
Ghana’s economy is therefore speaking in two voices. One voice comes from cocoa. Farmers deliver beans and wait weeks, sometimes months, to be paid. Buying companies are short of cash. Cocoa sits in warehouses while households struggle. A sector once known for order and stability is now under severe financial strain, and Licensed Buying Companies face mounting debts and reduced access to credit. The entire value chain, from farm gate to export terminal, is feeling the pressure.
The other voice comes from gold. Ghana recorded its highest-ever gold production in 2025, with output reaching an estimated 6 million ounces, placing the country among Africa’s top producers for the year. Gold has become one of the country’s most reliable sources of foreign exchange, accounting for a substantial share of export earnings and helping to strengthen external reserves and ease pressure on the cedi. While discussions are ongoing to revise mineral royalties and adjust fiscal terms, the broader picture in the gold sector today is one of recovery and resilience, at least in the near term.
Same country. Same government. Two commodities. Two very different experiences.
Cocoa Is Not Just Struggling. Cocoa Is Warning
That contrast should make us uneasy, because cocoa is not just struggling. Cocoa is warning us. For decades, the Ghana Cocoa Board was seen as one of Africa’s most successful commodity institutions, built on centralised marketing, guaranteed prices, and predictable incomes. But success bred rigidity. Over time, cocoa pricing drifted from global benchmarks, and financing models aged without meaningful reform. The institution also took on responsibilities far beyond buying and selling beans. Nothing collapsed overnight. Instead, the system slowly lost its ability to cope with shocks. When global cocoa prices softened and buyers hesitated, weaknesses were exposed. Farmers had done their work. The system could not do its own. That is how commodity crises are born in Ghana: not with drama, but with neglect and slow structural drift.
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Gold’s Good Fortune Comes With a Warning Too
Gold today feels like the opposite story. It is profitable again. It carries weight in Ghana’s external accounts. It helps stabilise the cedi and shore up the foreign exchange reserves. But it would be dangerous to assume that today’s gold success is permanent. Cocoa once felt permanent, too. High prices never last forever. They never have. The real question is not whether gold is doing well today. The real question is whether Ghana is building a gold system that will still work when prices are no longer friendly.
The Real Issue Is Governance
At its core, Ghana’s commodity problem has never really been about cocoa or gold. It has always been about governance. We manage abundance well in the short term, but we struggle to design systems that survive lean years. Cocoa is now being forced into reform. Gold offers something rarer: the chance to reform before pressure arrives. That difference defines the gap between leadership and firefighting.
What Keeping Gold Healthy Actually Means
Keeping gold healthy means pricing it based on market conditions, not politics. It means commodity institutions focused on commercial discipline, not silent social spending. It means saving in good years, not behaving as if good years are permanent. It means paying producers promptly, so trust in formal channels never breaks down. It means publishing the numbers so sunlight can do its work. None of this is glamorous. But this is how countries turn natural resources into lasting wealth.
Defining Choice
Ghana faces a defining choice. We can wait for problems to force change, as we have with cocoa. Or we can act early and use the gold moment wisely. The choice is still ours. The High Street Journal Editorial Board
