The Ghana National Chamber of Commerce and Industry (GNCCI) says it is hopeful that Ghana’s inflation rate could fall into single digits in the coming months, citing improvements in food supply and transport costs, but warns that persistent high production costs remain a risk.
Speaking in an interview with The High Street Journal, GNCCI CEO Mark Badu-Aboagye pointed to what he described as a “bumper harvest season” ahead, combined with falling fuel prices and transport costs, as critical drivers likely to slow inflation. He argued that the underlying trends suggest that single-digit inflation is achievable if these gains are sustained.
“From the way we are moving, I would not be surprised if we achieve nine percent in the next two months, because we are entering into the bumper harvest,” Badu-Aboagye said. “Obviously, once prices go down and transport costs reduce, that will help in reducing inflation.”
The Chamber’s position comes against a backdrop of recent declines in headline inflation, which the government and the central bank have cited as evidence of stabilisation efforts taking hold. Food inflation, in particular, has been easing, in part due to improved supply from farming areas and lower fuel costs, which have reduced transport charges from rural to urban markets.
Badu-Aboagye highlighted the role of these logistical costs in driving Ghana’s food inflation historically. “It’s only when we are transporting food to the market centres that prices were high,” he explained. “But once we reduce the inflow cost at the pump, we see prices falling.”
Despite this optimism, the Chamber cautioned that risks to the disinflation trend remain. Chief among them is the high cost of production faced by local businesses. He noted that if utility tariffs, taxes, and other input costs keep rising, they could put upward pressure on inflation even if food prices stabilise.
“There is an upside risk for inflation if the cost of production, the items we use to produce, should go up,” Badu-Aboagye warned. “But I’m very hopeful we’ll achieve it [single-digit inflation] if we manage these factors well.”
GNCCI has consistently advocated for policies that lower production costs, arguing this is vital not just for inflation control but for making Ghanaian businesses more competitive. The Chamber has called on the government to address high utility tariffs, multiple taxes, and interest rates that it says undermine private sector growth.
In the meantime, it hopes that favourable harvest conditions and transport cost reductions will translate into real relief for consumers, provided complementary policies support businesses in keeping other costs down.
