The global shipping industry is set for a challenging year in 2026, as slower economic growth and rising geopolitical risks weigh on demand and profits, according to Fitch Ratings.
Weaker GDP growth across major economies, combined with potential financial market shocks, could reduce shipping demand, with container shipping expected to be the hardest hit. Lower freight rates driven by an imbalance between supply and demand are likely to squeeze profits.
Tanker shipping, particularly crude oil carriers, is projected to remain relatively strong, supported by growing end demand and longer shipping distances.
Bulk carriers are expected to see steady, though modest, performance, while other segments such as liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers and car transport vessels should remain broadly stable.
Shipping order books have increased moderately, while the rate of vessel scrapping remains low, resulting in a slight rise in capacity.
At the same time, the pending International Maritime Organisation’s Net Zero framework could add pressure to shipping companies’ costs, though how much of these costs will be passed on is still unclear.
Trade tensions and tariff disputes are another concern. Protectionist measures could reshape shipping routes and reduce demand for some high-value goods, even as new trade lanes emerge that may offset losses.
These factors according Fitch Ratings, make 2026 a particularly uncertain year for the industry, with container shipping margins likely to face real pressure.
Overall, the global shipping sector is entering a period of slower growth, rising costs, and ongoing uncertainty, with companies needing to navigate both economic and geopolitical challenges.
