A wave of new liquefied natural gas projects in the United States and Qatar is set to flood global markets from 2027, intensifying pressure on prices and forcing gas-producing regions such as Africa to rethink their export-led strategies.
Bloomberg’s Global LNG Market Outlook 2030 projects global LNG supply will climb to 594 million metric tons by the end of the decade, a 42% increase from 2024 levels, creating a potential oversupply of about 15 million tons. While geopolitical tensions and project delays could alter the balance, analysts warn that a prolonged surplus would heighten market volatility and compress margins for exporters.
For Africa, the looming glut underscores a strategic challenge: how to insulate its gas sector by building stronger domestic value chains.
Natural gas production across the continent is rising, supported by new LNG projects from North and sub-Saharan Africa. North Africa currently accounts for about two-thirds of Africa’s gas output, but that share is expected to drop to 40% by 2035 as production accelerates south of the Sahara, according to the African Energy Chamber’s State of African Energy 2026 Outlook. By 2050, sub-Saharan LNG supply could be four times current levels, while African gas demand is forecast to grow 60%, from 55 billion cubic meters in 2020 to about 90 bcm.
Despite this demand growth, most African gas continues to flow overseas. Limited pipeline networks, weak transmission systems and inadequate processing and storage capacity mean domestic markets remain underserved, making LNG exports the most bankable option. Export projects benefit from long-term offtake agreements and easier access to international financing, while domestic infrastructure requires patient capital, government guarantees and regulatory support that are often harder to secure.
Recent projects, however, suggest momentum is building toward a more integrated gas economy. LNG terminals aimed at domestic and regional supply are under development at Richards Bay in South Africa and the Port of Nador in Morocco. Ethiopia has signed an agreement to advance a Gas-by-Rail Economic Corridor, a 75,000-kilometer freight network designed to transport LNG to more than 40 sub-Saharan countries.
Pipeline and power infrastructure is also expanding. Major projects include the proposed $25 billion Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline, the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline linking Nigeria and Algeria, and a $1.5 billion Mozambique-Zambia pipeline announced in 2025. Senegal is developing a phased gas network connecting offshore fields to power plants and industrial zones, while Ghana plans five petrochemical plants to support fertilizer, lubricants and broader industrial production.
Gas-to-power is emerging as a central pillar of national energy strategies, with the African Energy Chamber projecting natural gas will supply 45% of the continent’s electricity by 2050. Countries including Nigeria, South Africa, Angola, Senegal, Ghana and Mozambique are positioning gas as a bridge fuel to expand electricity access, support industry and reduce reliance on dirtier fuels.
“Export projects alone will not secure Africa’s energy future,” said NJ Ayuk, executive chairman of the African Energy Chamber. “Strategic investment in gas infrastructure will determine whether rising production translates into electricity access, industrial capacity and economic resilience.”
As global LNG markets grow more crowded, Africa’s ability to redirect gas toward domestic power, industry and regional trade is increasingly seen as the key to shielding its energy sector from external shocks and turning resource growth into long-term economic gains.
