Ghana’s external accounts have rebounded sharply in the first half of 2025, driven by strong export performance in gold, cocoa, and oil. The country recorded a current account surplus of US$3.44 billion, up from a US$2.81 billion deficit in the same period last year, marking one of its strongest half-year trade outcomes in a decade.
According to the 2025 Mid-Year Budget Review, the trade surplus rose by 306.6% year-on-year, reflecting a combination of higher export volumes, commodity windfalls, and tight import controls. Gross international reserves climbed to US$11.12 billion, equivalent to 4.8 months of import cover, offering a solid FX buffer.
The strong external performance has underpinned the cedi’s 42.6% appreciation against the U.S. dollar, provided room for domestic rate cuts, and supported headline disinflation.Ghana’s dependence on global commodity markets leaves it exposed to possible external risks in the second half of the year.
Commodity Exposure in a Volatile Global Market
Gold, cocoa, and oil collectively account for more than 70% of Ghana’s export earnings. While gold has performed strongly amid global monetary easing, cocoa faces downside pressure due to weather shocks in West Africa and subdued global demand. Oil exports remain vulnerable to OPEC+ production shifts and geopolitical tensions.
The World Bank forecasts a 12% decline in global commodity prices in 2025. If realised, this could erode Ghana’s export revenue base just as its fiscal framework begins to stabilise under the IMF program.
Additionally, external uncertainties, from U.S. tariff escalations to fragile Chinese growth, pose further downside risks to global demand for Ghana’s key commodities. While the budget review expresses confidence that falling global prices may cushion the impact of higher U.S. tariffs and supply shocks, the balance remains fragile.
Markets Watch for Policy Coordination
Ghana’s FX stability and trade gains have been partially supported by Bank of Ghana (BoG) interventions and the launch of the Ghana Gold Board (GoldBod), a domestic initiative to bolster FX reserves through local gold purchases. However, the IMF has advised reducing FX market intervention to allow greater exchange rate flexibility, a move that could expose the cedi to renewed volatility if export inflows weaken.
With reserves now above four months of import cover, the government is betting on disciplined spending, the 24-hour economy, and agriculture transformation initiatives to reduce import dependency and maintain the current account surplus. But the effectiveness of these structural reforms has yet to be tested under external price stress.
Solid Position, But Not Immune
Ghana’s external sector performance has been a major factor in restoring macroeconomic credibility and investor sentiment. But it remains highly pro-cyclical, with gains largely tied to global price and demand trends beyond the government’s control.
Unless diversification efforts accelerate and non-traditional exports gain traction, the country’s fiscal and currency gains could be vulnerable to a commodity downturn.
