Ghana’s stronger export performance in the first half of 2026 has significantly improved its external position, with Fitch Solutions raising its forecast for the country’s current account surplus to 7.8 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), from 5.2 percent previously.
The upward revision reflects a stronger-than-expected merchandise trade performance, which has increased the flow of foreign exchange into the economy and provided greater support for Ghana’s external financing position.
Fitch Solutions, the research arm of global ratings agency Fitch Ratings, said Ghana recorded a merchandise trade surplus of US$4.3 billion in the first half of 2026.
That was substantially higher than the average first-half surplus of about US$700 million recorded between 2016 and 2025.
The firm attributed the strong performance largely to robust gold exports and increased crude oil shipments, which boosted export earnings during the period.
“As such, we have revised up our 2026 current account surplus forecast to 7.8% of GDP, from 5.2% previously,” Fitch Solutions said.
The stronger trade position could provide Ghana with a larger external buffer by increasing the supply of foreign exchange available to support imports and meet external payment obligations.
For businesses, sustained export earnings could also help improve foreign exchange liquidity and reduce some of the pressure associated with financing imported machinery, raw materials and other inputs.
The development is particularly significant for Ghana because the country remains heavily dependent on commodity exports, with gold continuing to account for a substantial share of export receipts.
However, the improvement also highlights the economy’s continued exposure to commodity prices. A significant decline in gold or crude oil prices, or a reduction in export volumes, could weaken the trade balance and reverse some of the gains.
Fitch Solutions expects the current account surplus to narrow in 2027, although it projects that the balance will remain sizeable.
The outlook therefore provides some positive news for Ghana’s external sector in 2026, while underscoring the need to sustain export growth and diversify the sources of foreign exchange beyond traditional commodities.
The revised forecast also suggests that Ghana’s external position is performing better than previously anticipated, supported by a substantial trade surplus and strong commodity export receipts in the first half of the year.
