Ghana’s crude oil production is steadily declining as the country’s main oil fields, particularly Jubilee and TEN, show clear signs of natural depletion after more than a decade of operation.
According to the Public Interest and Accountability Committee (PIAC), the fall in output reflects the natural life cycle of the fields, which are now well past their peak production years. Oil, as a finite resource, becomes harder and more expensive to extract over time, leading to gradual declines in output unless new reserves are found.
The Jubilee Field, Ghana’s first and largest oil discovery, began production on December 15, 2010, and is now past the midpoint of its estimated 25–30-year lifespan.
“You would say that it has had its best of times, and reasonably, you should be seeing the field beginning to decline,” said Isaac Dwamena, Head of the PIAC Secretariat, during an interview on JoyNews’ PM Express Business Edition on October 14.
He explained that petroleum is a finite, exhaustible resource, and that natural depletion is an unavoidable part of oil production.
“As you produce, you deplete it. So as you deplete, then you have to replace the fields that are ageing,” he noted.
Even with the most advanced extraction technologies, Mr. Dwamena added, only about 35 to 40 per cent of oil reserves in the ground can ever be recovered, meaning the decline seen today is consistent with the age of Ghana’s producing fields.
Output Falling Steadily Since 2019
Ghana’s crude oil output has been on a downward trend since peaking at 71 million barrels in 2019. Production fell to 48 million barrels in 2024, and current figures point to a further drop in 2025.
As of mid-2025, only 18 million barrels had been produced. Even if that figure doubles by the end of the year, total output will reach about 36 million barrels, marking a near 50 per cent decline in just six years.
Mr. Dwamena attributed the drop primarily to the ageing of the Jubilee and TEN fields, Ghana’s main sources of crude. He cautioned that without new field discoveries or significant reinvestment, the decline could worsen.
Interventions Slowing the Decline
He, however, acknowledged that recent investments and expansion projects have helped slow the rate of decline.
“There have been two major investments in Jubilee. We had the Greater Jubilee Development, which came early on between 2013 and 2015, and last year we had the Jubilee South East project come on stream, which also helped to boost production,” he said.
He emphasized that without these interventions, Ghana’s oil output “would have seen very low numbers from the Jubilee field.”
Revenue Implications and Call for Exploration
Mr. Dwamena warned that the decline in production poses a serious risk to Ghana’s petroleum revenue, which contributes about 10 per cent of total government income and supports key national projects.
“If you’re looking at this quantum of contribution that this sector makes, then it’s critical that this finding and the recommendation that goes with it be taken with the seriousness that goes with it,” he stated.
