Ghana’s headline trade performance in the first quarter of 2026 may be stronger than the underlying volume of goods traded, with new data showing a sharp contrast between the country’s nominal trade surplus and its real trade position.
The Ghana Statistical Service (GSS) said Ghana recorded a nominal trade surplus of GH¢46.1 billion in the first quarter, with exports valued at GH¢110.3 billion against imports of GH¢64.2 billion.
However, when the effects of price changes are removed, Ghana recorded a real trade deficit of GH¢6.2 billion, with real exports valued at GH¢28.1 billion compared with real imports of GH¢34.3 billion.
The figures are contained in the GSS Quarterly Trade Newsletter for January to March 2026, which introduces Export and Import Unit Value Indices to distinguish changes in trade values caused by prices from those resulting from actual changes in the volume of goods traded.
The GSS said the difference between the nominal and real figures showed that a significant portion of Ghana’s reported trade surplus reflected higher prices rather than an increase in the physical volume of exports.
Export Prices Drive Headline Performance
According to the report, export prices increased by 5.0 percent year-on-year and 8.5 percent quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2026.
Import prices, meanwhile, moved in the opposite direction, declining by 26.6 percent year-on-year and 3.2 percent quarter-on-quarter.
The export unit value index stood at 392.6 in Q1, compared with 187.3 for imports, using Q1 2021 as the base period.
Gold was the major factor behind the increase in export prices, with gold export prices rising by 24.7 percent year-on-year and 15.1 percent quarter-on-quarter.
Gold bullion exports were valued at GH¢63.7 billion, equivalent to US$5.9 billion, accounting for 57.7 percent of total exports.
The GSS said the strength in gold prices had helped push up the overall value of exports even as real exports weakened.
Real Exports Contract
The real trade data showed that Ghana’s export performance weakened when measured at constant prices.
Real exports fell by 6.4 percent quarter-on-quarter and 10.8 percent year-on-year in Q1 2026.
Imports, however, recorded strong real growth, rising by 37.3 percent year-on-year and continuing an upward trend that began in Q1 2025.
The development suggests that the improvement in Ghana’s nominal trade balance does not necessarily mean the country is exporting a significantly larger volume of goods.
The GSS said the figures demonstrated the importance of looking beyond headline trade values when assessing the strength and sustainability of Ghana’s external sector.
Implications For Economic Policy
The report said Ghana’s trade position remained vulnerable because exports continued to depend heavily on a small number of primary commodities, particularly gold, cocoa and crude petroleum.
It said such concentration exposed the economy to international commodity price volatility and supply shocks.
The GSS therefore called for policies aimed at promoting structural transformation beyond the export of raw materials.
It also recommended greater value addition in cocoa and mineral sectors and an expansion of non-traditional and manufactured exports.
The report said strengthening domestic productive capacity would help Ghana build a more resilient export economy and reduce its exposure to changes in global commodity prices.
The Q1 data therefore presents a mixed picture: Ghana generated a substantial nominal trade surplus, but the real figures point to weaker export volumes and stronger import volumes.
For policymakers and businesses, the distinction could be important in determining whether Ghana’s trade gains reflect genuine improvements in productive capacity or are being driven mainly by favourable international prices.
