Ghana’s economy is showing signs of recovery following a landmark debt restructuring and anticipated political changes in December. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) forecasts 5.1% economic growth in 2025, driven by increased domestic demand, gold and oil exports, and easing inflationary pressures.
The foundation of this recovery lies in the government’s successful Eurobond debt restructuring, which secured $4.3 billion in relief. This reduced the interest rates on external debt and extended repayment timelines, easing Ghana’s fiscal burden. These efforts complement a $3 billion IMF program aimed at stabilizing the economy and boosting investor confidence, offering a clearer path toward fiscal sustainability.
Inflation, while still high at 22.1% as of October 2024, is expected to decline to 11.9% in 2025. A stable currency, lower global commodity prices, and reduced supply chain pressures will contribute to this drop. However, the report cautions that utility tariff hikes and high oil prices could temper the pace of disinflation, creating challenges for households and businesses.
The political landscape is also set to shift, with the EIU predicting an opposition win for the National Democratic Congress (NDC) in December’s elections. While a smooth transition is expected, economic frustrations and political polarization could lead to localized protests, especially in urban areas. This underscores the need for robust governance during this period of change.
Export-driven sectors are poised to play a critical role in Ghana’s recovery. Gold production is set to rise significantly with the expansion of the Bibiani and Ahafo North mines, while oil exports will benefit from increased activity in the Jubilee oilfield and potential developments in the Pecan oilfield. These gains, however, will be tempered by persistent challenges in the cocoa sector, including erratic weather, swollen shoot virus outbreaks, and smuggling.
Despite these gains, risks remain on the horizon. Delays in private debt restructuring and heightened political tensions could threaten the recovery momentum. Additionally, Ghana’s current account surplus is expected to shift to a deficit from 2026 as debt servicing resumes and import demand grows, adding further strain to the balance of payments.
Even with these uncertainties, the outlook remains cautiously optimistic. According to the EIU, Ghana’s ability to maintain fiscal discipline, implement pro-market reforms, and invest in infrastructure development will be critical.
The report emphasizes that leadership during this period will determine whether Ghana capitalizes on its progress to stabilize the economy and uplift living standards.
