Ghana could see its economy return to pre-pandemic stability by the first quarter of 2026, according to economic analyst Dr. Adu Owusu Sarkodie. The forecast is based on current trends in fiscal consolidation, tight monetary policy, and the cedi’s sustained appreciation.
“Things hopefully will normalize by the first quarter of 2026, that’s where I believe everything will come back to normal, to the pre-COVID levels,” Dr. Sarkodie stated in an interview with The High Street Journal.
Over the past year, the Ghanaian economy has shown signs of macroeconomic recalibration. Inflation has steadily declined, interest rates, though still high, are being managed more strategically, and the Ghana cedi has appreciated against major trading currencies. Dr. Sarkodie attributes these gains to a blend of domestic reforms and favourable global developments.
Under the IMF-supported programme, Ghana has pursued aggressive fiscal tightening. The Ministry of Finance recently slashed public expenditure by GHS 10 billion between 2024 and 2025. Simultaneously, the Bank of Ghana has maintained a strict monetary stance aimed at curbing inflation and stabilizing the currency.
Yet, the path to recovery hasn’t been without sacrifices. Lending rates remain elevated, hovering around 20%, and access to affordable credit for private sector businesses has declined. Dr. Sarkodie acknowledged the cost of these adjustments but described them as necessary growing pains in Ghana’s journey to economic stabilization.
“You can’t have a perfect solution. It’s always about being at the optimal level. And as long as the lending rate is that high, I’m not sure it will serve as an incentive for anybody to borrow,” he explained. “But it’s better to have a higher lending rate, appreciation of the cedi, and a lower inflation rate.”
He also stressed the importance of maintaining discipline even as the macro environment improves. Ghana’s potential lies not only in stabilizing inflation and the exchange rate but also in unlocking investment through infrastructure, value-added processing, and green technologies.
Dr. Sarkodie is optimistic that, with consistency, Ghana is poised to make a strong economic comeback: “Once the economy begins to expand from 2026, we are likely to see more opportunities and foreign investors coming in.”
He further highlighted Ghana’s untapped potential in mineral wealth, such as lithium, gold, and rhenium oxide, as well as the need to curb illegal mining (galamsey), which continues to threaten long-term agricultural and environmental sustainability.
If current trends hold, Ghana is on course not only for recovery but for transformation, laying the foundation for a stronger, more resilient, and inclusive economy.
