Ghana’s growing appetite for imports under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), without a corresponding rise in exports, could erode the country’s industrial base and dilute the core objectives of the continental trade pact, an international trade expert has warned.
Mr Louis Yaw Afful, an International Trade and AfCFTA Consultant, says current trade patterns under AfCFTA point to a structural imbalance that, if left unaddressed, could leave Ghana as a net consumer rather than a competitive producer within Africa’s single market.
Speaking at a media forum on the Investment Outlook in Ghana Under AfCFTA in Tema, Mr Afful revealed that Ghana accounts for more than 40 percent of imports traded under the AfCFTA preferential regime, while its share of exports remains comparatively low.
“This trend should concern policymakers,” he said. “AfCFTA was designed to promote industrialisation, value addition and intra-African trade. If Ghana continues to import far more than it exports, we risk weakening our industrial base instead of strengthening it.”
Mr Afful attributed the imbalance partly to Ghana’s tariff liberalisation commitments under AfCFTA. Ghana adopted a 10-year tariff reduction schedule, cutting tariffs by an average of 2.5 percent annually.
While this approach has improved market openness and positioned the country as an attractive destination for AfCFTA-compliant goods, it has also exposed weaknesses in domestic productive capacity.
“The liberalisation itself is not the problem,” he explained. “The real issue is that Ghana’s manufacturing and industrial output have not grown fast enough to take advantage of the expanded market access that AfCFTA offers.”
According to him, countries such as South Africa, Morocco, Egypt and Kenya have been able to dominate AfCFTA exports because of their stronger manufacturing ecosystems and well-developed industrial value chains.
These countries export finished and semi-finished goods, while Ghana remains heavily dependent on imports of manufactured products.
Mr Afful pointed to South Africa as a clear example, noting that its advanced manufacturing base is reinforced by extensive retail and distribution networks across Africa.
Large firms, including supermarket and consumer goods chains, give South African producers ready access to regional markets, allowing them to scale exports under AfCFTA.
“In Ghana’s case, the production base is still narrow,” he said. “Without deliberate efforts to expand manufacturing, agro-processing and light industry, Ghanaian businesses will struggle to compete, even with preferential access.”
He warned that an import-heavy AfCFTA participation could have long-term consequences for jobs, industrial growth and economic resilience.
An economy that consumes more than it produces within the free trade area, he said, risks becoming vulnerable to external supply shocks and losing opportunities for industrial learning and technology transfer.
To reverse the trend, Mr Afful called for targeted industrial policies that prioritise export-oriented manufacturing, value addition in agriculture, and the development of competitive industrial clusters.
He also stressed the need to align trade policy with investment, skills development and infrastructure planning.
“AfCFTA should be a tool for building factories, creating jobs and moving Ghana up the value chain,” he said. “If we do not intentionally boost exports, the agreement could end up reinforcing import dependence rather than transforming the economy.”
He urged government and the private sector to work together to ensure that Ghana’s AfCFTA strategy focuses not just on market access, but on building the productive capacity needed to compete across Africa’s single market.
