Ghana’s economic growth is projected to surge to 6.2% in 2025, significantly higher than both the government’s own estimate of 4.0% and Standard Bank’s earlier projection of 3.8%, according to the latest Standard Bank Economy 2025 Report.
The sharp revision is largely attributed to strong performance in the extractive sector, particularly gold mining, which is expected to offset weaknesses in traditional export areas such as cocoa.
Mining Drives Growth Amid Cocoa Slump
“Despite a poor performance from the cocoa sub-sector, the mining sector outperformed in 2024. We expect this trend to continue in 2025 following the commissioning of the Cardinal Namdini mine in Q4 2024, and a new mine Ahafo North is also expected to commence production in mid-2025.” the report noted.
These two large-scale operations are anticipated to inject an additional 600,000 ounces of gold into Ghana’s annual production, boosting foreign exchange earnings and lifting GDP figures.
“This development may also result in higher GDP growth in 2025 than our current core scenario,” the report added.
Sub-Saharan Africa Outlook Also Positive
The report also paints a cautiously optimistic picture for Sub-Saharan Africa, forecasting a regional GDP growth of 4.0% year-on-year in 2025, up from an expected 3.6% in 2024.
“Our assessment, that SSA growth will likely prove resilient from the January 2024 AMR (African Markets Revealed) publication, amid sluggish global growth and fading external demand, seems to have transpired,” the report said.
Standard Bank attributed the region’s resilience to the structure of its economies. “We had emphasized back then that, since private consumption expenditure comprises a notably larger share of overall GDP, subdued external demand from weaker global growth wasn’t likely to majorly disrupt economic activity in many of the SSA markets in our coverage,” it added.
First Quarter Data Supports Optimism
The bullish outlook is further supported by recent figures from the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS), which reported that Ghana’s economy expanded by 5.3% in Q1 2025, up from 4.9% in the same period of 2024. The uptick confirms growing momentum in key economic sectors despite ongoing global and domestic challenges.
As Ghana positions itself to leverage resource-based growth in the coming quarters, analysts caution that long-term resilience will depend on policy consistency, infrastructure investment, and inclusive economic planning to ensure broad-based gains beyond the mining enclave.
