Ghana is moving decisively to halt a steep decline in crude oil production, as new findings from a joint KPMG–UNDP report warn that output has dropped by nearly 50 percent since its 2019 peak, posing significant risks to revenue mobilisation and long-term fiscal stability.
According to the report, “2026 Budget Highlights,” crude oil production has plunged from 71.4 million barrels in 2019 to a projected 36 million barrels in 2025, reflecting delayed investments, maturing fields, and the absence of major new discoveries.
The downturn, it said, threatens government finances, energy sector planning, and Ghana’s ability to meet domestic gas demand.
In response, the Government is rolling out a multi-layered investment and regulatory strategy aimed at stabilising output and boosting gas supply for power generation.
Central to this plan is a $3.5 billion investment commitment secured through new strategic partnerships with international oil operators signalling renewed investor confidence in Ghana’s upstream sector.
The report highlights that $2 billion of this commitment will support drilling 20 new wells in the Jubilee and TEN fields, while an additional $1.5 billion will expand operations at the Offshore Cape Three Points block.
Ghana’s entry into oil production began in 2010 with the first Jubilee output, followed by a decade of strong investor interest that saw production peak at approximately 195,000 barrels per day in 2019.
But since then, output has steadily fallen, a trend analysts say can only be reversed through aggressive reinvestment and improved regulatory certainty.
To diversify beyond its maturing offshore assets, the report notes that the Ghana National Petroleum Corporation (GNPC) will begin exploratory drilling in the onshore Volta Basin in October 2026, opening what could become the country’s newest hydrocarbon frontier.
Major players such as Shell are also expressing interest, with expectations of bringing in new capital and advanced drilling technology to support growth.
The report cautions, however, that sustaining investor appetite will require “consistent macroeconomic stability, transparent regulations, and strict fiscal discipline.”
It recommends fast-tracking regulatory reforms, especially the establishment of an open and competitive licensing system for awarding new oil blocks to improve transparency and attract top-tier investors.
Additionally, it urges stronger local content measures to ensure that Ghanaian engineers, technicians, and service companies benefit directly from the expected surge in drilling and field development activities.
The analysts further advise that all new petroleum projects align with global Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) standards to ensure long-term sustainability and compliance with climate commitments.
