Ghana’s stronger-than-expected fiscal performance is masking a slowdown in infrastructure investment that could threaten the country’s medium-term growth prospects if the government continues to delay capital spending, according to a report from C-Nergy Global Holdings reviewing the 2026 mid-year budget.
While the government has won praise for narrowing the fiscal deficit and lowering borrowing costs, much of that improvement has been driven by expenditure restraint rather than stronger revenue collection, raising concerns over whether critical infrastructure projects will be delivered on schedule.
C-Nergy Global said commitment expenditure in the first quarter was 29.2% below the government’s program, compared with revenue and grants that were only 4.5% below target, suggesting spending cuts accounted for most of the fiscal outperformance.
“Suppressing expenditure beyond limiting discretionary elements is an unsustainable fiscal strategy for a developing country,” the report said, arguing that fiscal consolidation should come from improving spending efficiency rather than delaying investment.
Capital expenditure reached GH¢21.7 billion, or 1.36% of gross domestic product, in the first half of the year, well below the programmed allocation of GH¢36.6 billion, equivalent to 2.29% of GDP. The report noted that the World Bank estimates Ghana requires about $37.2 billion in annual investment to close its infrastructure gap and sustain inclusive economic growth.
Government now faces a difficult second-half balancing act, accelerating infrastructure delivery without unleashing enough deferred spending to reignite inflation, weaken the cedi or increase domestic borrowing costs.
The report warned that prolonged expenditure suppression could delay projects intended to improve productivity and export competitiveness, particularly under the government’s “Big Push” infrastructure agenda.
Work has started on 87 projects under the program, including the 176-kilometer Accra-Kumasi Expressway, which has $1.7 billion in ring-fenced funding, alongside new bridge developments and a $523 million Agricultural Enclave Roads Programme aimed at improving farm-to-market transport.
Even so, the report cautioned that the challenge has shifted from financing to execution.
“The portfolio is moving from announcement to funded execution,” it said, warning that launching too many projects simultaneously could overstretch contractor capacity, weaken supervision and reduce funding available for maintenance.
It also identified procurement reform as essential to translating fiscal discipline into economic growth. Proposed amendments to the Public Procurement Act would reduce tender periods for goods from 23 weeks to eight weeks and for construction works from 27 weeks to 14 weeks, a move the report said could speed up project delivery provided transparency and competition are maintained.
The report recommended that Ghana prioritize infrastructure projects based on their ability to expand exports, lower import costs, attract private investment and improve logistics, while releasing deferred expenditure in phases tied to inflation, reserve levels and fiscal performance.
