Ghana has revised its cocoa harvest forecast for the 2024-25 season for the second time, projecting a yield of around 617,500 tons due to unfavorable weather conditions. The country, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, lowered its expectations by 5% after conducting on-site crop surveys. This follows a previous reduction in August when the forecast was cut by 20%, bringing the figure to 650,000 tons.
The reduction is attributed to a combination of hotter-than-expected temperatures, insufficient rainfall, and the seasonal dry Harmattan winds, which affect cocoa crop development between December and February. These weather-related challenges have raised concerns over supply shortages, driving cocoa futures prices to record highs in New York, where they peaked at $13,000 per ton this week.
The situation in Ghana, along with other West African cocoa producers facing similar weather issues, has caused cocoa prices to surge throughout the year. This marks the third consecutive year of a global supply deficit, further exacerbating the volatility in the market. Traders expect price fluctuations to continue as the chance of replenishing global stockpiles diminishes.
Despite the lowered forecast, the projected harvest for 2024-25 is still expected to surpass last season’s output of 480,000 tons. However, with intense heat waves forecasted by the Ghana Meteorological Agency for the next year, concerns remain about future crop yields. The Ghana Cocoa Board has yet to comment on the situation.
As cocoa prices continue to soar, the impact is being felt across the global chocolate industry, from manufacturers to consumers, as the supply shortage tightens.
