Ghana’s cocoa farmers, who missed out on record-high global prices earlier this year because of a stronger cedi and modest farmgate hikes, now face fresh pressure as world cocoa futures slide below the country’s export benchmark.
New York cocoa futures fell to $6,970 a tonne on Monday, the lowest since November 2024 and below COCOBOD’s Free on Board (FOB) price of $7,200 a tonne. The drop raises concerns that Ghana, the world’s second-largest producer, could struggle to move beans at its official rate.
The slump marks a reversal after prices surged above $10,000 a tonne in April, driven by tight supply from West Africa. Farmers expected a windfall, but the sharp appreciation of the cedi cut the local value of earnings.
The government raised the farmgate price by only about 4%, leaving producers frustrated and prompting increased smuggling to neighbouring countries.
With futures now undercutting Ghana’s benchmark, COCOBOD’s new financing model faces its first real test. The regulator introduced an advance-payment system this season, asking international buyers to pay up to 60% of contract value upfront instead of relying on annual syndicated loans.
If buyers resist the $7,200 FOB, forward contracts could slow, starving the system of liquidity and leaving COCOBOD exposed just as the 2025/26 crop season begins.
The pricing mismatch compounds wider challenges in Ghana’s cocoa sector. Output for the current season has been hit by disease, erratic rainfall and the spread of illegal mining into cocoa-growing regions. Smuggling remains widespread, with large volumes diverted to Ivory Coast and Togo where farmgate prices are more attractive.
The combined effect leaves Ghana vulnerable on two fronts. Farmers were denied the benefits of a record rally earlier this year, and now face the impact of a global downturn.
For COCOBOD, the slide below its benchmark risks locking the country out of sales and undermining the financing mechanism that underpins its entire cocoa trade.
