Ghana’s economy could stabilize in the 6% or 6.5% range in 2026, the Ghana Association of Banks (GAB) said, but the outlook depends on continued fiscal discipline, easing inflation, and strategic investment in energy, agriculture, and infrastructure.
In its 2026 Industry Outlook, GAB traced Ghana’s growth over the past 15 years, noting cycles of boom, slowdown, and recovery.
Growth soared to 14% in 2011 with the start of oil production and remained above 7% in 2012–2013. But fiscal slippages, energy shortages, and macroeconomic instability sent growth tumbling to 2.1% in 2015, illustrating how quickly expansion can turn fragile.
A recovery followed in 2017–2019, with GDP growth consistently above 6%, supported by better policy coordination and stronger extractive-sector performance. The COVID-19 shock cut growth to a mere 0.5% in 2020, but the economy bounced back to 5.1% in 2021.
Subsequent headwinds, debt pressures, high inflation, and tighter financial conditions, slowed growth to 3.8% in 2022 and 3.1% in 2023. Encouragingly, recent data point to renewed momentum: 5.6% in 2024 and 6.3% by mid-2025, driven by macroeconomic stabilization and improving confidence.
Looking ahead, GAB described the 2026 outlook as cautiously optimistic. Fiscal consolidation, declining inflation, and targeted investment in critical sectors are key to sustaining growth.
But risks remain. Debt sustainability, external financing conditions, and productivity-enhancing structural reforms will determine how much global economic tailwinds actually translate into domestic growth.
GAB also warned that the recovery remains vulnerable to external shocks, commodity price swings, and currency volatility, which could disrupt export earnings, domestic prices, and the country’s foreign debt obligations.
The report emphasized that structural reforms to reduce policy uncertainty and strengthen productivity are essential for turning cyclical gains into long-term, sustainable growth.
“Ghana has demonstrated resilience through past cycles of boom and slowdown,” GAB said. “Achieving stable growth in 2026 will require disciplined policy execution, strategic investment, and careful management of macroeconomic risks.”
