Ghanaians could see a welcome dip in fuel prices in the coming pricing window, with petrol and diesel expected to decline between 5% and 9%, according to a new forecast from the Africa Sustainable Energy Centre (ASEC). The projected price drop is largely driven by the strengthening of the Ghanaian cedi against the US dollar, an encouraging development for both consumers and oil importers.
Ghana’s fuel pricing mechanism operates on a biweekly basis, adjusting pump prices based on movements in global crude oil benchmarks, exchange rates, and import costs. In its latest market assessment, ASEC predicts that petrol could retail between GH¢12.00 and GH¢12.60 per litre, while diesel prices may range from GH¢12.60 to GH¢13.20 per litre.
“The current exchange rate gains mean importers are spending fewer cedis for every dollar of fuel purchased, and this is expected to be reflected in lower pump prices. This comes as a welcome relief for Ghanaians dealing with rising cost of living pressures.” ASEC said in a statement.
While international crude oil prices have also fallen from around $85 per barrel in January to approximately $64 per barrel ASEC noted that the recent appreciation of the cedi had had a more direct impact on local pricing dynamics. Because petroleum imports are dollar-denominated, a stronger cedi significantly lowers the procurement cost for oil marketing companies.
However, the think tank warned that the consumer gains could come with trade-offs for the government. Ghana, as an oil-exporting country, relies heavily on petroleum revenue for foreign exchange earnings and budgetary support. With crude prices down more than 24% since January, public sector revenue from oil exports may take a hit.
“Unless the exchange rate is the driver of these declines, falling global oil prices usually translate to revenue shortfalls. The state may be forced to increase production volumes to meet revenue targets.” ASEC cautioned.
The centre noted that current trends could lead to additional fuel price reductions in the second half of 2025, as international crude prices are expected to hover between $62 and $65 per barrel. This forecast is based on a global supply glut from OPEC+ producers and waning demand in major economies like the US and China.
ASEC affirmed its commitment to tracking market trends and providing data-driven insights to guide national energy policy. It encouraged the government to develop a balanced approach that ensures both short-term consumer relief and long-term energy security.
“Fuel pricing remains a vital economic indicator in Ghana, influencing inflation, transportation, and the cost of goods and services. While the projected reduction is temporary, it offers much-needed respite to households and businesses navigating Ghana’s economic recovery.” ASEC noted.
