International ratings agency Fitch Solutions is forecasting a stronger economic performance for Ghana in 2026, underpinned by resilient consumer spending, easing inflation and a recovery in investment activity.
In its latest outlook, Fitch expects Ghana’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to rise slightly from 5.8 percent in 2025 to 5.9 percent in 2026.
The projection points to a broadly positive medium-term trajectory, even as recent data suggest a modest slowdown in the pace of expansion.
Figures from the Ghana Statistical Service show that economic growth softened to 5.5 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025, down from 6.5 percent in the previous quarter.
Despite this deceleration, Fitch believes the underlying drivers of growth remain intact and are likely to strengthen over the coming year.
Household consumption is expected to be the main engine of growth in 2026. According to Fitch, this will be supported by a notable decline in inflation, which is projected to fall from an average of 14.6 percent in 2025 to 9.7 percent in 2026.
The agency attributes the easing of price pressures to a combination of factors, including a reduction in the effective Value Added Tax (VAT) rate, lower global energy prices and relatively limited depreciation of the Ghanaian cedi.
While inflation is expected to tick up slightly in the second half of 2026 due to stronger demand, Fitch says price levels will remain far more stable than in recent years, helping to protect household incomes.
Further boosting consumer spending is the government’s plan, outlined in the 2026 budget, to increase public-sector wages by nine percent.
Fitch expects this to significantly improve purchasing power, keeping private consumption growth robust at an estimated 6.5 percent in 2026.
Private consumption alone is projected to contribute about 5.3 percentage points to overall GDP growth.
Investment activity is also expected to pick up. Fitch points to the Bank of Ghana’s ongoing monetary easing cycle, which has seen substantial interest rate cuts since mid-2025, as a key factor likely to stimulate private-sector borrowing and capital spending.
In addition, the anticipated rollout of major legislative reforms, including the Public-Private Partnership Act and the Corporate Insolvency and Restructuring Act is expected to strengthen the business environment and improve investor confidence.
The recapitalisation of institutions such as the National Investment Bank and the Agricultural Development Bank should further ease access to credit, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises.
On the external front, Fitch notes that strong global gold prices and healthy international reserves are likely to help cushion the economy against excessive exchange rate pressures.
As a result, the agency expects the cedi to depreciate at a pace below its long-term average, supporting overall macroeconomic stability.
