A 20% increase in international food prices could push more than 20 million people across Sub-Saharan Africa into moderate or severe food insecurity, underscoring the growing threat that rising energy and fertilizer costs pose to the region’s economic recovery, according to Afreximbank Research.
The warning comes as the conflict in the Middle East drives up energy prices and disrupts shipping and supply chains, creating a chain reaction that could raise agricultural production costs and eventually increase food prices across import-dependent African economies.
Fertilizer costs have emerged as a major risk because the Gulf region is an important source of both fertilizer and energy inputs, Afreximbank said in its August Monthly Developments in the African Macroeconomic Environment report.
Higher natural-gas prices and supply disruptions have already contributed to rising fertilizer costs, raising the prospect that the energy shock could develop into a broader agricultural and food-security crisis.
“The timing is particularly important,” the report said, noting that higher fertilizer costs during planting seasons could reduce farmers’ use of inputs and lower agricultural yields. The impact could emerge months later through higher food prices and weaker agricultural output.
The potential social consequences are significant. IMF analysis cited in the report estimates that a 20% increase in international food prices could push more than 20 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa into moderate or severe food insecurity.
The report identifies rising energy costs as the first stage of a broader inflationary transmission mechanism. Higher fuel prices increase transportation and logistics costs, which then feed into food prices and could eventually lead to higher wages and broader increases in the cost of goods and services.
Afreximbank said this raises the risk of second-round inflation, potentially making price pressures more persistent than the initial commodity shock.
The challenge is particularly acute for countries dependent on imported fuel, food and fertilizer. Higher global commodity prices can widen import bills, increase demand for foreign exchange and put pressure on domestic currencies, further increasing the local cost of essential goods.
Afreximbank projects fertilizer prices will rise 26% in 2026, while food prices are expected to increase by about 8%. Crude oil prices are projected to average about $89 a barrel, 32% above the 2025 average, adding further pressure across agricultural supply chains.
The inflation shock could also complicate monetary and fiscal policy across Africa.
Central banks may face pressure to delay or reverse interest-rate cuts to contain rising inflation even as economic growth weakens. Governments, meanwhile, could face demands to subsidize fuel, food and fertilizer, potentially undermining fiscal consolidation and increasing debt pressures.
The report said Sub-Saharan Africa’s median inflation rate is projected to rise from 3.4% at the end of 2025 to about 5% by the end of 2026 as the effects of higher energy and food costs spread through the economy.
For African economies, the risk is that an external geopolitical shock evolves into a domestic cost-of-living crisis, with higher energy prices reducing household purchasing power and rising fertilizer costs threatening agricultural production.
The report’s warning suggests that the economic consequences could extend beyond inflation and growth, potentially placing food security at the center of Africa’s policy challenges in 2026.
