Ghanaian businesses benefited from a sharp decline in import prices in the first quarter of 2026, even as prices of the country’s exports continued to rise, new trade data from the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS) has shown.
The development could provide some relief for import-dependent businesses by reducing the cost pressures associated with sourcing goods from international markets, while simultaneously improving the value Ghana receives for its exports.
According to the GSS Quarterly Trade Newsletter for January to March 2026, export prices increased by 5.0 percent year-on-year and 8.5 percent quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2026.
Import prices, however, declined by 26.6 percent year-on-year and 3.2 percent quarter-on-quarter.
The contrasting movements were reflected in Ghana’s Export and Import Unit Value Indices, which measure changes in the prices of traded goods and help separate price movements from changes in the actual volume of trade.
Gold Drives Higher Export Prices
The increase in export prices was largely driven by gold, which remains Ghana’s dominant export commodity.
The GSS said gold export prices increased by 24.7 percent year-on-year and 15.1 percent quarter-on-quarter during the period.
Gold bullion exports were valued at GH¢63.7 billion, equivalent to US$5.9 billion, representing 57.7 percent of Ghana’s total exports.
The increase in gold prices therefore had a significant effect on Ghana’s overall export price index.
The GSS said the overall export unit value index stood at 392.6 in Q1 2026, compared with an import unit value index of 187.3, using Q1 2021 as the base period.
The figures indicate that the prices Ghana received for its exports had risen considerably compared with the base period, while import prices had increased at a much slower pace.
Importers Could See Lower Cost Pressures
For businesses that depend heavily on imported goods, the decline in import prices could ease some cost pressures.
The GSS said import prices declined year-on-year across every product classification, pointing to a broad-based easing rather than a decline concentrated in one particular category.
The development could be particularly relevant for manufacturers and traders that rely on imported raw materials, machinery, intermediate goods and other inputs.
Lower import prices could reduce the cost of sourcing goods from overseas, although the extent to which businesses and consumers benefit would depend on other factors such as exchange-rate movements, taxes, transportation costs, financing costs and domestic operating expenses.
The trade data itself does not establish how much of the decline in international import prices was passed on to businesses or consumers.
Imports Rising In Real Terms
Despite the fall in import prices, Ghana’s real imports increased significantly during the quarter.
The GSS said real imports rose by 37.3 percent year-on-year, continuing the positive trend recorded since Q1 2025.
Real exports, meanwhile, declined by 10.8 percent year-on-year and 6.4 percent quarter-on-quarter.
This creates an important distinction between the value and volume of Ghana’s international trade.
Although Ghana imported goods at lower prices, the volume of goods imported increased significantly.
At the same time, the country’s export volumes weakened even as export prices increased.
Trade Surplus Supported By Price Movements
The price trends also help explain Ghana’s large nominal trade surplus during the quarter.
Ghana recorded a nominal trade surplus of GH¢46.1 billion, with exports of GH¢110.3 billion exceeding imports of GH¢64.2 billion.
However, after adjusting for price effects, Ghana recorded a real trade deficit, with real exports valued at GH¢28.1 billion compared with real imports of GH¢34.3 billion.
The GSS said the gap between the nominal and real measures showed how much of the nominal trade surplus reflected high prices rather than larger volumes of goods.
What It Means For Ghana’s Competitiveness
The contrasting export and import price movements provide both an opportunity and a warning for the Ghanaian economy.
On the positive side, higher export prices combined with lower import prices can improve the terms of trade and potentially ease pressures on businesses that depend on imported inputs.
However, the decline in real export volumes raises questions about the underlying competitiveness and productive capacity of the export sector.
The GSS said Ghana’s trade remains heavily dependent on a few commodities, including gold, cocoa and petroleum, exposing the economy to global price volatility.
It therefore called for greater diversification of exports, increased domestic value addition and expansion of non-traditional and manufactured exports.
The Service also recommended investment in trade infrastructure and improved access to finance to enable businesses, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises, to build productive capacity and compete in export markets.
Businesses Need More Than Favourable Prices
For Ghanaian businesses, the Q1 trade figures present an unusual combination of favourable and challenging conditions.
Exporters benefited from stronger prices, particularly for gold, while importers faced lower international prices across product categories.
But the decline in real exports suggests that favourable prices alone may not be sufficient to strengthen Ghana’s long-term trade position.
The GSS data therefore reinforces the need for Ghana to increase production, diversify its export basket and move further into higher-value goods.
That, rather than price movements alone, would provide a stronger foundation for sustained export growth and a more resilient external sector.
