Economist Dr. Theo Acheampong warns that exchange rate fluctuations might prevent the government from meeting its end-of-year inflation target of 15 percent. Analyzing the revised macroeconomic targets from the Mid-Year Budget Review, he expressed optimism about achieving the revised Overall Real GDP Growth rate of 3.1 percent, up from 2.8 percent, but he cautioned that the inflation target might be missed.
Dr. Acheampong noted that import duties and taxes are typically denominated in dollars, which can lead to higher prices when the cedi depreciates. He explained that increased port charges are passed on to consumers, driving up prices and potentially undermining efforts to control inflation.
The government updated its macroeconomic targets for 2024. During the Mid-Year Budget presentation on July 23, 2024, Finance Minister Mohamed Amin Adam announced an increase in the Overall Real GDP Growth rate to 3.1 percent, up from the previous 2.8 percent. The end-of-year inflation target remains at 15 percent.
Other revisions include an increase in the Non-Oil Real GDP Growth rate from 2.1 percent to 2.8 percent. The nominal Overall GDP estimate has been adjusted from GH₵1,050 billion to GH₵1,020 billion, and the Non-Oil GDP estimate has been revised from GH₵979 billion to GH₵977.1 billion.
The Primary Balance on a commitment basis remains at a surplus of 0.5 percent, and Gross International Reserves are expected to cover at least 3.0 months of imports. Total Revenue and Grants are now projected at GH₵177.2 billion (17.4% of GDP), up from GH₵176.4 billion (16.8% of GDP), reflecting an increase in Non-Oil Non-Tax Revenue due to higher dividends from interest in the ESLA accounts.
