Policy analyst Bright Simons has raised concerns about the trading operations of GoldBod, warning of growing risks in Ghana’s gold export program after the International Monetary Fund confirmed the state-linked entity has been recording trading losses.
In a post on X, Simons said the issue has drawn renewed attention following disruptions to cargo flights operated by Emirates SkyCargo, which have affected gold shipments from Ghana. “I see that, all of a sudden, there is an interest in what is happening at GoldBod because Emirates Cargo flights have been disrupted,” Simons wrote. “Meanwhile, the current policy requires gold to be sold quickly for dollars to flow through BoG into the market. Yet, this was raised weeks ago!”
Concerns about the program were first highlighted in 2025 via his X page, which noted that recent confirmation from the IMF reinforced questions about the financial performance of the trading model. In his 2025 post, he wrote, “Now that the IMF, which gets its information direct from government, has confirmed that the GoldBod has been making trading losses, we can put that point to the side,” he said.
The analyst also noted that GoldBod appears to attribute the losses to the Bank of Ghana, suggesting the issue could prompt further debate over the program’s structure and oversight. “We do note, however, that GoldBod appears to be saying that the Bank of Ghana is responsible for the losses,” Simons wrote. “Meaning, perhaps, that we haven’t heard the last of this matter.”
GoldBod is central to Ghana’s policy of using gold purchases to support the currency and provide foreign exchange liquidity to the domestic market. Under the current framework, gold acquired locally is sold quickly on international markets to generate dollars that flow through the central bank. Simons argued that the success of such policies depends less on political intent than on execution.
“It is about Policy Execution, which is ruthless in its emphasis on DETAIL, and the cascading impact of wrong choices at multiple levels, and the corrosive effect of unresolved trade-offs,” he said. According to Simons, the program effectively shifts gold-derived foreign currency from commercial banks to the central bank, giving policymakers greater control over exchange-rate management.
“GoldBod’s trading costs are the costs of shifting gold dollars from the commercial banks to the Bank of Ghana to give politicians more political control of a policy matter: stable currencies,” he wrote. Simons said the costs are likely to remain manageable while global gold prices stay elevated, but could become more burdensome if prices decline.
“So long, as the price of gold is high, that cost will be insignificant,” he said. “When prices fall, the costs will become harder to bear.”He also warned of operational risks linked to the concentration of buyers for Ghanaian gold exports. “As the attached charts show, there is a massive overconcentration of buyers of GoldBod gold,” Simons wrote, noting that more than 90% of exports appear to be sold to a handful of buyers in India and the United Arab Emirates.
According to his analysis, companies including Sovereign Metals in India and Pinnacle DMCC in Dubai have dominated purchases, accounting for nearly 60% of sales in the quarter ending September 2025.
Simons said the export pattern involves weekly shipments with large quarter-end transactions, including a $208 million sale recorded on Sept. 30, 2025.“This is not a ‘Gold for Reserves’ program but a ‘Gold for Cash’ program,” he wrote.
He estimated that the current trading losses range between about 2.8% and 4.3% per ounce, driven by factors including hedging and timing costs, foreign-exchange basis subsidies and discounts offered to buyers. “The high concentration has strengthened the current overseas buyers, who operate in markets used to high discounts,” he said.
Simons also pointed to concentration risks within Ghana’s domestic gold aggregation network, citing Bawa Rock as the dominant aggregator supplying GoldBod.“It is understood that the Bank of Ghana advances large amounts in Cedis to this player,” he wrote. He added that analysts are examining reports of an opaque bonus system in which some traders receive higher payments per ounce than the official price listed by GoldBod.
“We may thus be dealing with a case of LBMA discounts on the selling side and premiums on the buying side,” Simons said, referring to standards set by the London Bullion Market Association. Simons said ongoing scrutiny by analysts and policy observers will be essential to identify emerging risks and allow policymakers to adjust the program before deeper financial strains emerge.
