African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) has warned that the possible emergence of a strong El Niño weather pattern later this year could disrupt agricultural production across Africa and reignite volatility in global commodity markets, even as supplies of key crops begin to recover.
(El Niño is a natural climate pattern characterized by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It disrupts global atmospheric and wind patterns, typically occurring every two to seven years.)
In its latest commodity bulletin, the Cairo-based trade finance institution said climate forecasts pointed to a “high probability” of a potentially “super” El Niño event developing between June and August 2026 and extending into early 2027.
The bank said the weather phenomenon, which is associated with major shifts in global rainfall and temperature patterns, posed a growing risk to agricultural commodities that remain highly sensitive to climate disruptions.
“The expected return of El Niño conditions therefore introduces a material source of systemic volatility across agricultural and related commodity markets,” the report said.
Afreximbank said the climate threat comes at a time when several commodity markets are stabilizing after periods of extreme price swings driven by supply shortages, geopolitical tensions and slowing global demand.
The lender warned that El Niño conditions could bring warmer and drier weather across parts of Africa, South America, Southeast Asia and Australia, disrupting production of crops including cocoa, palm oil, coffee, rice and corn.
The report cited particular risks for West Africa’s cocoa sector, where improved weather in major producers Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire has recently helped ease severe market tightness following record price rallies.
Cocoa prices have retreated sharply after futures briefly approached $11,000 a ton during the 2024-25 season, with industry estimates now projecting a global surplus of as much as 300,000 tons for the 2025-26 season.
But Afreximbank said weather-related disruptions linked to El Niño could quickly reverse improving supply conditions and reintroduce price pressures across agricultural markets.
“Agricultural commodities especially remain structurally weather-sensitive,” the report said, adding that changes in West African rainfall patterns represented “an important upside volatility trigger.”
The warning comes as climate shocks increasingly reshape commodity markets and food supply chains globally, forcing governments, traders and manufacturers to factor extreme weather risks into pricing and investment decisions.
Beyond agriculture, Afreximbank said climate uncertainty was emerging as a counterweight to broader bearish pressures in commodity markets tied to rising inventories, recovering production and weaker demand growth.
