Former Deputy Attorney General, Joseph Kpemka, has urged caution in interpreting Ghana’s recent economic growth figures, noting that much of the current momentum is fueled by early optimism surrounding the new administration.
He warned that the true resilience of the economy will only become clear when the government begins disbursing significant payments and rolling out large-scale programs.
Kpemka observed that a wave of renewed confidence typically follows a change in leadership, which can temporarily boost economic indicators.
“When there’s a change of government, that initial optimism, both locally and internationally tends to lift confidence levels. That’s what we’re seeing reflected in the numbers,” he said.
However, he warned that these positive signals may be short-lived if not backed by fiscal discipline and real sector investment.
“When the government begins to make major payments, especially to contractors and for policy programmes, economic indicators could shift. These obligations have the potential to distort the current trend,” Kpemka said. “Right now, those heavy disbursements haven’t begun.”
Strong Growth Backed by Agriculture
His comments follow the release of Ghana’s Mid-Year Budget Review, in which Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson reported that the economy grew by 5.3% in the first half of 2025, up from 4.9% in the same period of 2024. This represents the strongest first-half performance since the COVID-19 pandemic struck in 2020.
The growth was driven largely by gains in agriculture, which expanded by 6.6% in the first quarter alone. The fishing subsector led the surge with a 16.4% increase, contributing to 26.4% of overall growth.
“Despite global economic uncertainties, Ghana’s economy has shown remarkable progress,” Dr. Forson told Parliament on July 24. “This is largely due to targeted investments in the productive sectors, especially agro-industrial value chains.”
Outlook Depends on Fiscal Follow-Through
While acknowledging the positive momentum, Kpemka stressed that true economic resilience depends on how the government manages its financial commitments in the months ahead.
“There’s a difference between confidence-driven growth and sustained transformation. The real test will be when the government starts fulfilling big-ticket obligations, can the economy hold up?” he questioned.
His remarks align with broader analyst views that early gains must be tempered with cautious optimism, especially given the looming fiscal pressures and potential external shocks such as commodity price volatility and global trade disruptions.
As the Mahama administration intensifies efforts to build a production-led economy, the coming months will be crucial in determining whether the current growth can evolve into long-term stability.
