Deloitte West Africa says Ghana’s inflation outlook is likely to improve, supported by fiscal discipline, monetary tightening, lower energy prices, and a relatively stable cedi. However, the firm warned that domestic inefficiencies could pose upside risks to the ongoing disinflation trend.
In its April 2025 West Africa Inflation Update, Deloitte highlighted that Ghana recorded its fourth consecutive drop in inflation, reaching 21.2% in April 2025. This trend could give the Bank of Ghana more room to ease monetary policy if inflation continues to fall.
Still, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a higher year-end inflation rate of 17.5%, compared to the government’s 12% target.
Deloitte noted that food inflation, despite dropping to 25%, remains a key driver of living costs, with oils and fats recording the highest inflation among food items.
Monthly inflation in Ghana also rose slightly to 0.8% in April, up from 0.2% in March, suggesting a possible return of short-term inflationary pressures.
In Nigeria, headline inflation slowed to 23.71% in April 2025, down from 24.23% in March. Core inflation also fell to 23.39%, marking the steepest decline among sub-indices.
Deloitte attributed the drop to base effects and falling fuel prices, which are expected to continue easing inflation in the coming months.
However, the report warned that naira volatility and tariff increases could limit further disinflation. Despite the improving outlook, the Central Bank of Nigeria maintained its key interest rate at 27.5% during its May 2025 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, indicating a continued tight monetary stance.
Deloitte said while macroeconomic conditions are improving across the two largest West African economies, policymakers must remain vigilant against emerging risks that could derail progress.
