Aliko Dangote has laid out one of the most ambitious industrial expansion plans in Africa’s recent history, targeting global leadership in both fertilizer production and oil refining within the next three years.
Speaking at the formal launch of several major projects on 11 December, Dangote said the group aims to boost urea output from its current three million tonnes to 12 million tonnes annually by 2028, a move that would put the company ahead of the world’s largest existing producer. “We will be the number one fertilizer plant in the world by 2028,” he said. “We will actually surpass the current world leader.”
The conglomerate is pursuing similarly aggressive targets in refining. Dangote’s refinery, once fully operational, is expected to process 1.4 million barrels of crude per day — exceeding the 1.25 million-barrel capacity of the world’s largest refinery. “We will be bigger than Reliance,” he said, referring to India’s Reliance Industries, whose Jamnagar complex currently leads globally.
Dangote Industries also plans to scale up petrochemical output to 2.4 million tonnes per year, reinforcing a strategy aimed at positioning Africa as a stronger force in global industrial supply chains. The company says its expanded distribution networks will ensure refined products and fertilizers reach markets across Southern and Eastern Africa, reducing the continent’s dependence on imports.
Beyond Nigeria, Dangote confirmed new ventures, including a proposed copper refinery in Zambia, signalling broader ambitions in regional industrial diversification. “We will make it happen. We will make Nigeria and Africa proud,” he added.
Analysts say the scale of the expansion could have significant ripple effects. Quadrupling urea production would add meaningful supply to a global fertilizer market increasingly exposed to price volatility. For African economies, a larger domestic supply could ease import costs, stabilise farm input availability and strengthen food security.
The refinery’s planned capacity could also reshape petroleum trade flows. If fully realised, Nigeria could transition from a major crude exporter to a significant supplier of refined fuels and petrochemicals, boosting industrial activity, expanding manufacturing opportunities and tightening regional trade integration.
Taken together, Dangote’s targets represent one of the boldest pushes yet to redefine Africa’s role in global production networks, with implications for regional competitiveness, commodity markets and long-term economic diversification.
