Copper markets have experienced pronounced volatility in 2025, driven by geopolitical disruptions, extreme weather events, and structural shifts in demand, according to a report by Afreximbank. Prices have staged three major rallies this year, with a sustained surge in the second half, lifting COMEX (Commodity Exchange Inc.) futures above $5.35 per pound, up more than 32 percent year-to-date.
The market’s rally was initially supported by speculation around U.S. trade policy, as traders front-loaded purchases amid expectations of tariffs. However, when refined copper was ultimately excluded from the final tariff measures, futures corrected sharply, dropping more than 20 percent. Despite short-term fluctuations, analysts view the broader outlook as structurally bullish, with supply constraints intersecting rising demand in multiple sectors.
“The market may be entering a super-cycle,” the report notes, citing tight global supply, declining ore grades, high capital costs, and lengthy development timelines. Extreme weather has also exacerbated supply pressures, including flooding in Chile in 2024 and a deadly mudslide at Freeport’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia, the world’s second-largest copper operation.
Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) requirements, along with water-use constraints, have delayed major projects in Arizona and Mongolia, while energy costs have forced some smelters to reduce output temporarily. Collectively, these factors reinforce copper’s status as a strategic bottleneck in the global energy transition.
On the demand side, copper consumption is structurally strong, driven by expansion in data centres, renewable energy infrastructure, electric vehicles, and modernised agriculture. The International Copper Study Group recently revised its outlook from a projected 209,000-tonne surplus to a 150,000-tonne deficit by 2026, reflecting sustained global demand.
Africa, home to some of the world’s highest-grade copper deposits, stands to expand its role strategically and commercially. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Zambia jointly account for over 10 percent of global mined output, with the Kamoa-Kakula project positioning the DRC as a structural growth hub. Zambia aims to raise output to three million tonnes by 2032, supported by investment, government policy, and fiscal stability. Emerging projects in Namibia and Botswana are also attracting investment as producers diversify supply sources.
The report highlights opportunities for Africa to capture additional value by moving beyond primary ore exports. Expanding domestic smelting, refining, and production of copper-intensive components could meet rising regional demand driven by electrification, renewable energy deployment, and transport electrification. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) provides a framework to harmonise standards, incentivise regional value chains, and consolidate demand.
In 2023, Afreximbank and the UN Economic Commission for Africa signed a framework agreement with the DRC and Zambia to establish Special Economic Zones for Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) production, placing copper and cobalt at the heart of regional industrialisation. The establishment of a regional Battery Council further strengthens collaboration and positions Africa to meet global supply needs while driving domestic energy-transition demand.
Despite short-term risks such as U.S. cargo re-exports and seasonal slowdowns in China, the Afreximbank analysis concludes that copper’s medium- to long-term outlook remains robust, with African producers well-placed to benefit from rising global demand and the ongoing energy transition.
