Cocoa prices eased from recent highs as traders took profits following a strong rally, while improved supply signals from the world’s largest cocoa producer, Ivory Coast, weighed on the market. However, concerns over the next harvest cycle continue to provide support for prices amid adverse weather conditions in West Africa.
Cocoa futures traded around US$5,600–US$5,900 per tonne, retreating from an eight-month high of US$6,455 per tonne reached on July 9 as investors reduced bullish positions following signs of stronger near-term supplies from Ivory Coast.
The decline came after data showed that Ivory Coast farmers delivered 2.07 million metric tonnes of cocoa to ports between October 1, 2025 and July 5, 2026, representing a 21% increase compared with the same period a year earlier. Rising exchange-monitored inventories also added pressure, with ICE cocoa stocks climbing to a nearly two-year high of 3.15 million bags.
Despite the improved short-term supply outlook, the market remains cautious about the upcoming 2026/27 cocoa season, with concerns that excessive rainfall linked to El Niño conditions could affect production in Ivory Coast. The country’s main crop is expected to decline by more than 10% as heavy rains have increased risks of disease, affected farm conditions and disrupted cocoa-growing areas.
Farmers in key producing regions have reported that excessive soil moisture remains a challenge, with plantations requiring more sunshine to reduce disease risks and support the development of cocoa pods ahead of the September-to-February main harvest season. Flowering is expected to continue through September, with final output dependent on how many flowers successfully develop into mature pods.
The recent volatility highlights the competing forces shaping the cocoa market: stronger current-season deliveries are easing immediate supply concerns, while weather-related risks are keeping attention focused on future production.
Cocoa prices have gained strongly in recent weeks, rising 38.95% over the past month, although they remain 22.99% lower than a year ago, reflecting the market’s recovery from last year’s extreme price swings.
