Despite cocoa prices surging to historic highs in 2025, Fitch Solutions warns that Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire the world’s top producers are unlikely to enjoy the full economic windfall.
Data from Fitch shows that cocoa averaged US$8,900 per tonne between January and July 2025, more than triple the long-term average of US$2,500 per tonne recorded between 2005 and 2023. While prices are projected to ease slightly to about US$6,900 per tonne between 2026 and 2030, they are expected to remain well above historical trends.
Yet, Fitch stresses that the upside for Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire will remain muted. “Our view that structurally higher cocoa prices will not create major economic windfalls for Africa’s cocoa-producing nations in the coming years rests on three key factors,” the research firm explained.
Why The Boom May Not Pay Off
The first issue lies in the pricing mechanism. Both countries operate government-controlled marketing boards that fix farmgate prices the rates paid directly to farmers. Although these farmgate prices have been revised upwards in recent years, they remain well below international benchmarks, leaving farmers with only a fraction of the global price surge.
Secondly, fiscal and operational constraints limit how much of the global gains can be distributed domestically. While farmer incomes have improved modestly, they still trail far behind global averages, reducing the potential boost to household consumption and local economies.
Finally, structural weaknesses in both economies such as overreliance on raw cocoa exports, limited local processing capacity, and volatile fiscal buffers mean that higher prices do not translate into sustainable, broad-based growth.
Analysts argue that without bold reforms in revenue management, processing, and value addition, Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire risk remaining price takers in a global market where the real gains accrue elsewhere.
In short, while cocoa’s record-breaking rally has dominated headlines, Fitch concludes that the two giants of global cocoa production may see little more than modest relief. The windfall, it seems, will stop short of transforming their economies.
