Global cocoa prices have climbed back above $5,600 per tonne, extending a strong recovery over the past month as concerns grow over the outlook for the next West African crop. But after months of sharp price swings, it remains unclear whether the latest rally will carry into the start of the new crop season in September or prove to be another short-lived spike.
Cocoa was trading at about $5,676 per tonne on Tuesday after touching $5,779 per tonne, its highest level since January. The commodity has gained more than 50% over the past month, reflecting renewed concerns about supplies from West Africa.
The rebound comes as weather conditions in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, which together account for more than half of global cocoa production, raise fresh concerns about the 2026/27 crop.
Heavy rainfall in parts of both countries has disrupted harvesting and transport while increasing the risk of fungal diseases during a critical stage of crop development. Reports of fewer cocoa pods than expected have also added to supply concerns.
The weather has prompted expectations that Côte d’Ivoire’s cocoa production could decline to between 1.7 million and 1.8 million metric tonnes in the 2026/27 season, compared with about 2.2 million tonnes in the previous season.
Attention is also turning to the possibility of El Niño strengthening later this year. If that happens, it could intensify the Harmattan, the hot, dry wind that reduces soil moisture and places cocoa trees under additional stress during pod development.
Together, these factors have helped lift cocoa prices after several months of volatility.
The market, however, remains far from settled.
Cocoa prices have experienced repeated surges and pullbacks over the past year as changing weather patterns and shifting production expectations have continued to influence sentiment. That has made traders cautious about reading too much into any single rally.
The latest move above $5,600 per tonne is therefore being seen as an important recovery, but not yet clear evidence that the market has entered a sustained upward trend.
For Ghana, firmer international prices could support cocoa export earnings if production holds up. However, the benefits of higher prices could be limited if weather conditions reduce the volume of beans available for export.
The rebound has revived hopes of a stronger cocoa market, but whether prices continue to climb or slip back into the volatility seen over the past year is likely to become clearer as the new crop season begins later in the year.
