By Isaac Sarfo Afram
There is a bitter truth behind your favorite chocolate bar. The cocoa beans that give chocolate its rich flavor are under threat from climate change, and the future of chocolate is at risk. Rising temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, and extreme weather are making it harder to grow cocoa in the tropical regions where it thrives. But there’s another dark side to this story: the desperate measures some farmers are taking to survive, including illegal deforestation that’s destroying precious ecosystems. If this continues, chocolate could become scarcer and much more expensive in the coming decades.
Cocoa trees, scientifically known as Theobroma cacao, thrive under very specific tropical conditions that combine consistent warmth, abundant moisture, and rich soils. These delicate trees require a carefully balanced environment to produce the high-quality beans used in chocolate production. The ideal temperature range for cocoa cultivation falls between 21°C and 32°C (70–90°F). Temperatures below 15°C (59°F) significantly slow growth, while anything above 35°C (95°F) causes heat stress and reduces productivity. Cocoa trees are extremely sensitive to cold and cannot survive frost or prolonged cool periods.
Rainfall plays an equally crucial role in cocoa farming. The trees need substantial annual precipitation between 1,500 and 2,500 mm (60–100 inches), ideally distributed evenly throughout the year. While cocoa requires consistent moisture, a short dry period of one to three months actually benefits the trees by allowing proper pod maturation. High humidity levels between 70% and 80% help maintain the necessary moisture balance in the air and soil. Current climate models suggest that by 2050, nearly 90% of current cocoa-growing areas in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire may become climatically unsuitable. This impending crisis demands urgent adaptation strategies including development of heat-tolerant varieties, smart irrigation systems, and climate-smart agroforestry approaches to preserve both cocoa production and the ecosystems that support it.
Most of the world’s cocoa comes from West Africa, where countries like Ivory Coast and Ghana power over 70% of the global supply. These regions have the perfect combination of heat, humidity, and rainfall that cocoa trees need. But as temperatures rise, the delicate balance is being disrupted. Studies show that by 2050, many current cocoa-growing areas may become too hot and dry for cocoa trees to survive.
Here is where the situation gets worse. As climate change makes traditional cocoa farms less productive, some farmers are clearing protected forests to find new land with better growing conditions. In Ivory Coast, nearly 90% of the country’s original forests have disappeared, much of it illegally cleared for cocoa farming. This deforestation is not just about losing trees. It is causing massive biodiversity loss, destroying habitats for endangered species like forest elephants and chimpanzees. The very act of cutting down these forests makes climate change worse, creating a vicious cycle that threatens cocoa production even further. Cocoa trees need consistent rainfall, but climate change is making dry seasons longer and more severe. When there is not enough water, the trees produce fewer pods, and the beans inside are smaller and lower quality. In recent years, droughts in West Africa have already led to smaller harvests, pushing up cocoa prices worldwide. Some farmers, facing failing crops on their existing land, see no choice but to move deeper into protected forests where the soil is still fertile.
At the same time, too much rain can be just as damaging. Heavy downpours and flooding spread diseases that attack cocoa trees. One particularly destructive disease, called black pod disease, thrives in wet conditions and can wipe out entire crops. Farmers who might have lost 10% of their harvest to disease in the past now sometimes lose half their trees. When this happens, the temptation to clear new forest land becomes stronger, even though it is illegal and ultimately makes the climate problem worse.
Rising temperatures are also inviting new pests to cocoa farms. Insects like cocoa mirids, which damage trees and reduce yields, are spreading to areas where they were not common before. Warmer weather allows these pests to reproduce faster, making them harder to control. Many small farmers cannot afford expensive pesticides, so they watch helplessly as their pods get destroyed when COCOBOD supply of agro chemicals delays. For some, the only apparent solution is to abandon their struggling farms and clear new land elsewhere, often in protected areas where enforcement is weak.
The impact on farmers is devastating. Most cocoa growers are small-scale farmers who depend on their crops to feed their families and send their children to school. When yields drop, their income disappears. Some are forced to cut down more forest to plant new trees, which worsens climate change. Others abandon cocoa farming altogether, leaving the industry with fewer producers. Meanwhile, the illegal deforestation continues to destroy vital ecosystems, releasing stored carbon into the atmosphere and accelerating the very climate changes that are making cocoa harder to grow.
There is some hope. Scientists are developing new cocoa varieties that can withstand higher temperatures and resist diseases. Organizations such as Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD) are teaching farmers better techniques, like planting shade trees such as Emire, Ofram and Mahogany to protect cocoa from the sun while preserving forest canopy. Some farmers are diversifying their crops so they are not completely dependent on cocoa. Major chocolate companies have pledged to eliminate deforestation from their supply chains, though enforcement remains challenging.
But these solutions take time, and climate change is happening fast. Chocolate companies and governments need to invest more in helping cocoa farmers adapt without destroying forests. Consumers can help by choosing chocolate made with sustainably grown cocoa and supporting brands that protect both farmers and forests.
The next time you enjoy a piece of chocolate, think about the farmers halfway across the world who made it possible and the forests that are disappearing to keep feeding our chocolate habit. Their future and the future of chocolate depends on how we respond to climate change and deforestation today. So whether you are a cocoa farmer in Goaso, Ofoase Ayiribi or Assin Fosu or a cocoa beans buyer or a chocolate manufacturer, you have your part to play to make cocoa production sustainable . Without urgent action, the world’s favorite sweet treat could become a rare luxury, and the beautiful forests of West Africa could vanish forever. The time to protect both chocolate and our planet is now, before it is too late.
The author is soil scientist
