The Ghanaian Cedi is expected to stabilise within a range of GH¢11 to GH¢12 per U.S. dollar by the end of 2025, according to Nelson Cudjoe Kuagbedzi, Head of Finance at UMB Capital. His forecast contradicts recent projections from Fitch and other analysts who expect the Cedi to depreciate to GH¢13 or GH¢15.
Kuagbedzi, cited recent currency trends and the government’s fiscal posture as key factors. The Cedi has appreciated sharply in 2025, moving from about GH¢15.00 to GH¢10.30 against the dollar between January and late May, a gain of roughly 32%.
“We don’t expect the Cedi to appreciate throughout the year; at a point, it will stagnate, and actually settle within a band. I do not agree with the projection by Fitch and others, saying that the Cedi will stagnate at GH¢15 by the end of the year,” he said.
Kuagbedzi attributed the currency’s recent strength to the government’s limited spending so far in 2025, which has reduced demand for foreign exchange.
“Currently, the government is embarking on a contractionary Economic Policy. They are not spending on or starting any mega project. So, there is enough reserve with the Bank of Ghana. As soon as they start spending, you will see that the Cedi will begin to shake. But it will stagnate within the band of GH¢11 by the end of the year,” he stated.
He also noted that the government has not yet begun major payments or debt servicing, as payables remain under audit. This delay, he said, is helping to support the local currency in the short term.
“Within the short term, you will realise that the government is trying to build enough reserves to meet the demand of those who need the forex,” he said. “Again, the government has not started paying out its payables, because those payables are still under audit. Even though we have not started servicing debts yet, since they came to power.”
Kuagbedzi warned that once large expenditures resume, pressure could return to the Cedi. However, he remained confident that the currency will remain within the projected range.
“We don’t expect it to go beyond GH¢12 by the end of the year. I expect the Cedi to stabilise with the band of GH¢11 or GH¢12 by the close of the year,” he said.
