As the business community returns from the New Year break and the financial markets reawaken, the trajectory of the Ghana cedi in 2026 is at the forefront of economic discussions across boardrooms, banks and street corners. After a remarkable performance in 2025, where the local currency posted significant gains against the U.S. dollar, economists and market participants are debating whether this momentum can be sustained or whether new global and domestic pressures will test its resilience.
In 2025 Ghana’s cedi defied several negative projections by strengthening substantially against the dollar. Data from independent forecasters shows that the cedi appreciated by about 27.75 percent on the retail market last year and was listed as one of the best performing currencies in Africa. On the interbank market the cedi settled around GH¢10.45 to the dollar at times, reflecting sustained demand and strategic foreign exchange interventions by authorities.
At a high-profile policy forum on January 6, Bank of Ghana Governor Dr Johnson Asiama underscored the progress made, pointing to structural reforms in the gold purchase system and deliberate foreign exchange management as key supports for currency stability. Dr Asiama said the reforms had “reshaped how Ghana captures value from its gold resources while strengthening external buffers.”
The foreign exchange landscape for 2026 will be influenced by a mix of external variables such as global interest rate dynamics and oil import bills, even as domestic fundamentals show improvement. Rising U.S. interest rates are likely to maintain pressure on emerging market currencies, including the Ghana cedi, because of increased demand for dollars in global markets. At the same time, fuel imports have surged, increasing the demand for foreign exchange and putting pressure on local currency balances.
Among international forecasters, some caution that the cedi could face mild depreciation over 2026 even after its strong performance last year. A recent projection by Fitch Solutions suggests an approximate 8 percent weakening of the cedi against the U.S. dollar in 2026, a figure that remains moderate compared with historical averages but signals continued exposure to external pressures. The agency noted that elevated gold prices and healthy international reserves will nonetheless limit undue volatility.
Domestic analysts and firms, including the Association of Ghana Industries, have pointed to improvements in dollar supply from commercial banks as a signal of more orderly markets. The president of AGI stated that the supply of U.S. dollars in the banking system had “improved slightly,” adding that the situation was materially better than in previous months.
Despite these gains, market participants acknowledge that the gains recorded in 2025 did not fully eliminate structural vulnerabilities. Economists such as Professor Eric O. Bokpin have previously noted that maintaining a stable cedi requires deeper economic fundamentals, including sustained external reserves and predictable fiscal operations, cautioning against overreliance on short-term interventions.
Government and central bank authorities remain confident that stability will be reinforced in 2026 as policy frameworks mature and economic reforms deepen. The Bank of Ghana has signaled its intent to be a more active participant in the foreign exchange market in January by planning to sell up to $1 billion in foreign currency through auctions. This approach aims to satisfy importers and commercial demand without anchoring the exchange rate to an artificial target.
In his opening remarks at the New Year economic forum, President John Dramani Mahama stressed the importance of currency stability as part of Ghana’s broader economic turnaround. He emphasised that the reversal of previous depreciation trends offered improved conditions for business and investment in 2026.
For the everyday Ghanaian trader, importer and consumer, the direction of the cedi carries immediate meaning. A stronger or stable cedi can translate into cheaper imported goods, more predictable pricing for fuel and raw materials, and greater investor confidence. Conversely, renewed depreciation could quickly erode purchasing power and push up the cost of essential imports.
As Ghana’s economy moves into the new year, the cedi’s outlook reflects a balance between cautious optimism rooted in recent achievements and the sober reality of global monetary forces. Market watchers will be watching closely for signals from the Bank of Ghana’s foreign exchange operations, global interest rate shifts, and the pace of export receipts, particularly from commodities such as gold and cocoa.
In this complex equation, the cedi’s path through 2026 could yet become a defining story for Ghana’s economic health and business confidence as the year unfolds.
