The Bank of Ghana (BoG) sold $1.4 billion in foreign exchange during the first quarter of 2025, marking an aggressive market intervention pace, according to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) latest programme review.
“The Bank of Ghana’s footprint in the FX market continued to increase. Large-scale FX intervention continued in 2025, reaching $1.4 billion in the first quarter,” the Fund reported.
This first-quarter figure already exceeds the total $1 billion the Bank injected into the market across all of 2023, and follows a record-breaking $2 billion sell-off in just the final quarter of 2024, driven by election-related pressures. Overall, interventions in 2024 totaled $3 billion.
The IMF has urged caution, recommending that the BoG reduce its role in the forex market and adopt greater exchange rate flexibility. It further called for the development of “a formal internal intervention framework to improve transparency and predictability.”
BoG officials attributed the heightened interventions largely to persistent dollar obligations within Ghana’s energy sector. These include monthly payments to independent power producers, fuel suppliers such as the West African Gas Pipeline Company, and importers of refined petroleum products. Fuel imports alone average approximately $400 million per month, generating a quarterly demand of roughly $1.2 billion.
Despite this heavy outflow, Ghana’s foreign exchange buffers remain robust. Higher global gold prices, increased domestic purchases under the gold purchase programme, improved remittance flows, and stronger cocoa earnings have lifted gross international reserves to $10.6 billion equivalent to 4.7 months of import cover.
The Bank of Ghana remains confident in its interventions, supported by these inflows. The cedi, which opened the year at GH¢14.70 to the dollar, is currently trading at GH¢10.37, making it the best-performing currency in the world so far this year.
Analysts attribute the cedi’s rally partly to a weaker US dollar under President Trump’s economic policies, but more importantly to Ghana’s disciplined fiscal management and rising gold revenues. Still, the scale of the central bank’s forex sales cannot be overlooked.
At the current intervention pace, the BoG could sell up to $5.6 billion in forex by end-2025, nearly doubling last year’s total. However, this strategy hinges on sustained inflows, particularly from gold, where prices remain elevated.
Yet, as the IMF warns, “relying heavily on commodity windfalls is risky.” Any sharp decline in gold or cocoa prices could quickly trigger renewed currency pressures.
“If reserves begin to falter or external shocks emerge, the risk of renewed depreciation rises,” analysts caution. While tight fiscal and monetary policy have helped stabilise the cedi, a structured rules-based approach to forex management will be essential to avoid future volatility.
The IMF emphasises that without a clear internal intervention framework, Ghana risks “swinging from intervention-led stability to sharp volatility if inflows fall short.”
The cedi’s current strength is undoubtedly encouraging. But as market watchers agree, deliberate planning and transparent intervention policies will be critical to ensuring that today’s gains do not become tomorrow’s fragility.
