The Bank of Ghana Forecasting Team has made substantial strides following technical support from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The multi-year Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) Technical Assistance (TA) project, which began in late 2019, has significantly enhanced the team’s capacity for model-based forecasting and policy analysis, integrating these tools into the Bank’s monetary policy processes and external communications, the IMF has noted in its latest report on Ghana.
The report says through seven missions, both virtual and in-person, the BoG’s forecasting team has developed advanced skills and now delivers high-quality analytical support to policymakers. Central to this effort is the use of the Quarterly Projections Model (QPM), which plays a pivotal role in constructing baseline forecasts, alternative scenarios, and expert-driven narratives. These forecasts, the Fund says have been successfully embedded into the Bank’s bi-monthly Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meetings, informing key decisions with data-driven insights.
Despite the progress, the IMF has recommended expanding the forecasting team to ensure the sustainability of FPAS operations and to cope with the growing demand for analytical work. This expansion would allow the team to respond more efficiently to MPC requests, strengthen resilience against staff turnover, and further enhance external communications by focusing on forward-looking policy analysis, improving transparency, and anchoring market expectations.
The Fund says the project has largely achieved its goals, positioning the BoG at the forefront of central bank best practices in model-based monetary policy formulation.
