Artificial intelligence will deliver economic benefits that far outweigh its environmental cost over the next five years, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated in a new report released during its Spring Meetings with the World Bank Group.
According to the Fund, AI is projected to raise global GDP by 0.5% annually between 2025 and 2030, driven by productivity gains across sectors. The forecast comes as energy-intensive AI systems are drawing increasing scrutiny over their carbon footprint.
“Despite challenges related to higher electricity prices and greenhouse gas emissions, the gains to global GDP from AI are likely to outweigh the cost of the additional emissions,” the IMF said, as reported by Reuters.
Although emissions from AI infrastructure are expected to rise significantly, the IMF notes the economic return on emissions investment remains strongly positive.
“The social cost of these extra emissions is minor compared with the expected economic gains from AI, yet it still adds to the worrisome buildup of emissions,” the Fund added.
The report projects that global electricity demand from AI could more than triple to 1,500 terawatt-hours by 2030, equivalent to the current power consumption of India, the world’s third-largest electricity consumer. This spike in usage is driven by the scaling of generative AI, large language models, and data-intensive inference operations.
Even under existing energy policies, the IMF estimates that the rise in AI-related electricity use will increase global greenhouse gas emissions by 1.2% over the 2025–2030 period. The estimated cost of those emissions, between $50.7 billion and $66.3 billion, remains modest relative to the global output boost expected from widespread AI adoption.
The Fund mapped projected emissions growth in metric tons of CO₂ equivalent, comparing it to baseline 2030 emissions to illustrate the net effect of IT-sector expansion.
The findings arrive amid mounting pressure on both governments and private tech firms to align AI development with global climate goals, especially as regulatory frameworks lag behind deployment speed.
“Governments, tech companies and energy companies must play an active role in ensuring AI is used intentionally, equitably and sustainably,” said Roberta Pierfederici, policy fellow at the Grantham Research Institute, in an interview with Reuters.
The IMF’s stance reflects a pragmatic economic approach: AI’s benefits are material and immediate, while its environmental costs, though real, are viewed as manageable, at least in the near term. But the Fund stops short of calling the trade-off neutral, warning that unchecked emissions growth adds to long-term climate risks.
The report underscores the growing intersection of tech innovation, macroeconomic planning, and environmental policy, setting the stage for intensified debate around AI regulation and sustainable infrastructure.
