The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the global economy to grow 3.1% this year, as investment in artificial intelligence helps offset the economic damage from energy supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions.
Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the stability in the global growth outlook masks widening differences between economies benefiting from the AI boom and those suffering the consequences of war and higher energy costs.
The IMF maintained its growth forecast at 3.1% in October 2026, unchanged from its projection a year earlier, despite mounting pressures on the world economy, Georgieva said in her address at the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in Thailand.
“This steady growth is the net result of two big opposing forces: an energy shock, hurting growth, and an AI boom, lifting it,” she said.
The resilience of global growth comes amid disruptions to energy supplies, shipping risks and geopolitical tensions that are weighing on economic activity. At the same time, investment linked to AI is supporting growth in economies involved in developing and supplying the technology.
The divergence is becoming more pronounced. Economies affected by war have experienced substantial downward revisions to their growth prospects, while the United States, China, India and other economies, particularly in Asia, have benefited from improved forecasts because of their exposure to the AI value chain.
However, Georgieva cautioned that the technology boom carries its own economic risks. The infrastructure required to support AI is generating substantial financing needs, increasingly funded through debt, while the scale and speed of future productivity gains remain uncertain.
The combination of energy pressures, technological investment and geopolitical fragmentation is also complicating the inflation outlook. A super El Niño event this year is adding to price pressures, particularly through food costs, which disproportionately affect poorer households.
The IMF chief also warned that high public debt is leaving governments with less room to respond to economic shocks. Although advanced economies carry the heaviest debt burdens, indebtedness is also rising in emerging markets. Low-income countries face a different challenge, with high and increasing interest payments competing with development spending as official aid declines.
These pressures are unfolding as governments contend with growing mistrust in international relations, disruptions to the trading system and conflicts stretching from Ukraine to the Gulf.
Georgieva said the global economy had remained remarkably steady despite these challenges but warned that resilience should not be mistaken for an absence of risk.
Maintaining economic stability will require governments to manage fiscal vulnerabilities, protect price stability and prepare their economies for technological change, she said.
The IMF is also urging major economies to address structural imbalances that could undermine global growth over time, including encouraging greater US saving, stronger Chinese consumption and increased investment in Europe.
For policymakers, the challenge is to preserve the growth momentum while addressing the financial and geopolitical vulnerabilities that could weaken the outlook.
