Africa’s rice market has expanded rapidly in recent years, but the continent remains heavily dependent on imports to meet domestic demand, according to the Afreximbank Commodity Bulletin Number 1 – 2025.
The report indicates that the value of Africa’s rice market was US$24 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach US$29.2 billion by 2030, representing a 4% compound annual growth rate. Despite rising output, imports continue to account for about 40% of total rice consumption on the continent.
Africa’s available rice supply reached approximately 39.8 million tonnes in 2022, up from 36.9 million tonnes in 2018, supported by higher production in countries such as Nigeria, Mali, and Guinea. The bulletin notes that these countries are investing in irrigation and improved farming techniques to increase domestic yields.
Globally, the Commodity Bulletin reports that rice production reached a record 533.8 million tonnes (milled basis) in the 2024/25 season, an increase of 11.6 million tonnes from the previous year. This was driven by bumper harvests in major producing nations, including India, Cambodia, and Pakistan, while adverse weather conditions reduced output in Bangladesh and Nigeria.
The report also notes that rice prices have declined to their lowest levels in eight years, following the lifting of India’s export ban and expanded output in Thailand and Vietnam. Afreximbank observed that while Africa’s production has increased, the continent’s self-sufficiency is constrained by inadequate infrastructure, limited access to quality seeds, and climatic variability.
According to the report, rising urban populations, evolving dietary preferences, and regional trade initiatives under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) are expected to sustain demand for rice across the continent.
On sugar, it reports that global sugar prices have fallen to their lowest levels in more than three years, as strong harvests and changing trade policies reshape the market.
According to the bulletin, global sugar production rose to around 186 million tonnes in 2024, up about 1.4 % compared with 2023. Top producers, Brazil, India, and countries in Southeast Asia recorded strong harvests that offset weather-induced shortfalls elsewhere.
The report highlights that Africa’s sugar output has remained relatively flat, accounting for about 6% of global production, but notes that this share could increase with planned expansions in Egypt, Kenya, and Morocco. Producers on the continent are focusing on capacity expansion, efficiency improvements, and market diversification to sustain profitability amid low global prices.
Afreximbank attributes the decline in prices to abundant supply and the resumption of sugar exports by India after a temporary suspension. Despite weaker international prices, the report notes that Africa’s rising domestic demand and investments in production efficiency could support medium-term sector growth.
The bulletin outlines opportunities in industrial and non-food uses of sugar, including bioethanol, pharmaceuticals, and cosmetics, as producers seek to diversify income streams.
